Anthropogenic land use changes drive a range of infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events and modify the transmission of endemic infections. These drivers include agricultural encroachment, deforestation, road construction, dam building, irrigation, wetland modification, mining, the concentration or expansion of urban environments, coastal zone degradation, and other activities. These changes in turn cause a cascade of factors that exacerbate infectious disease emergence, such as forest fragmentation, disease introduction, pollution, poverty, and human migration. The Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence grew out of a special colloquium that convened international experts in infectious diseases, ecology, and environmental health to assess the current state of knowledge and to develop recommendations for addressing these environmental health challenges. The group established a systems model approach and priority lists of infectious diseases affected by ecologic degradation. Policy-relevant levels of the model include specific health risk factors, landscape or habitat change, and institutional (economic and behavioral) levels. The group recommended creating Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training, based at regional universities and/or research institutes with close links to the surrounding communities. The centers’ objectives would be 3-fold: a) to provide information to local communities about the links between environmental change and public health; b) to facilitate fully interdisciplinary research from a variety of natural, social, and health sciences and train professionals who can conduct interdisciplinary research; and c) to engage in science-based communication and assessment for policy making toward sustainable health and ecosystems.

The spread of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into Asia, Europe, and Africa has resulted in enormous impacts on the poultry industry and presents an important threat to human health. The pathways by which the virus has and will spread between countries have been debated extensively, but have yet to be analyzed comprehensively and quantitatively. We integrated data on phylogenetic relationships of virus isolates, migratory bird movements, and trade in poultry and wild birds to determine the pathway for 52 individual introduction events into countries and predict future spread. We show that 9 of 21 of H5N1 introductions to countries in Asia were most likely through poultry, and 3 of 21 were most likely through migrating birds. In contrast, spread to most (20/23) countries in Europe was most likely through migratory birds. Spread in Africa was likely partly by poultry (2/8 introductions) and partly by migrating birds (3/8). Our analyses predict that H5N1 is more likely to be introduced into the Western Hemisphere through infected poultry and into the mainland United States by subsequent movement of migrating birds from neighboring countries, rather than from eastern Siberia. These results highlight the potential synergism between trade and wild animal movement in the emergence and pandemic spread of pathogens and demonstrate the value of predictive models for disease control.emerging ͉ introduced species ͉ model ͉ trade ͉ zoonotic disease

The transmission of vector-borne pathogens is greatly influenced by the ecology of their vector, which is in turn shaped by genetic ancestry, the environment, and the hosts it feeds on. One group of vectors, the mosquitoes in the Culex pipiens complex, play key roles in the transmission of a range of pathogens including several viruses such as West Nile and St. Louis encephalitis viruses, avian malaria (Plasmodium spp.), and filarial worms. The Cx. pipiens complex includes Cx. pipiens pipiens with two forms, pipiens and molestus, Cx. pipiens pallens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. australicus, and Cx. globocoxitus. While several members of the complex have limited geographic distributions, Cx. pipiens pipiens and Cx. quinquefasciatus are found in all known urban and sub-urban temperate and tropical regions, respectively, across the world, where they are often principal disease vectors. In addition, hybrids are common in areas of overlap. Although gaps in our knowledge still remain, the advent of genetic tools has greatly enhanced our understanding of the history of speciation, domestication, dispersal, and hybridization. We review the taxonomy, genetics, evolution, behavior, and ecology, of members of the Cx. pipiens complex and their role in the transmission of medically important pathogens. The adaptation of Cx. pipiens complex mosquitoes to human-altered environments led to their global distribution through dispersal via humans and, combined with their mixed feeding patterns on birds and mammals (including humans), increased the transmission of several avian pathogens to humans. We highlight several unanswered questions that will increase our ability to control diseases transmitted by these mosquitoes.

Lyme disease is the most common tick-borne disease in temperate regions of North America, Europe and Asia, and the number of reported cases has increased in many regions as landscapes have been altered. Although there has been extensive work on the ecology and epidemiology of this disease in both Europe and North America, substantial uncertainty exists about fundamental aspects that determine spatial and temporal variation in both disease risk and human incidence, which hamper effective and efficient prevention and control. Here we describe areas of consensus that can be built on, identify areas of uncertainty and outline research needed to fill these gaps to facilitate predictive models of disease risk and the development of novel disease control strategies. Key areas of uncertainty include: (i) the precise influence of deer abundance on tick abundance, (ii) how tick populations are regulated, (iii) assembly of host communities and tick-feeding patterns across different habitats, (iv) reservoir competence of host species, and (v) pathogenicity for humans of different genotypes of Filling these knowledge gaps will improve Lyme disease prevention and control and provide general insights into the drivers and dynamics of this emblematic multi-host-vector-borne zoonotic disease.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.

Disease can play an important role in structuring species communities because the effects of disease vary among hosts; some species are driven towards extinction, while others suffer relatively little impact. Why disease impacts vary among host species remains poorly understood for most multi-host pathogens, and factors allowing less-susceptible species to persist could be useful in conserving highly affected species. White-nose syndrome (WNS), an emerging fungal disease of bats, has decimated some species while sympatric and closely related species have experienced little effect. We analysed data on infection prevalence, fungal loads and environmental factors to determine how variation in infection among sympatric host species influenced the severity of WNS population impacts. Intense transmission resulted in almost uniformly high prevalence in all species. By contrast, fungal loads varied over 3 orders of magnitude among species, and explained 98% of the variation among species in disease impacts. Fungal loads increased with hibernating roosting temperatures, with bats roosting at warmer temperatures having higher fungal loads and suffering greater WNS impacts. We also found evidence of a threshold fungal load, above which the probability of mortality may increase sharply, and this threshold was similar for multiple species. This study demonstrates how differences in behavioural traits among species—in this case microclimate preferences—that may have been previously adaptive can be deleterious after the introduction of a new pathogen. Management to reduce pathogen loads rather than exposure may be an effective way of reducing disease impact and preventing species extinctions. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience’.

The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. These results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.

Emerging infectious diseases are a key threat to wildlife. Several fungal skin pathogens have recently emerged and caused widespread mortality in several vertebrate groups, including amphibians, bats, rattlesnakes and humans. White-nose syndrome, caused by the fungal skin pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans, threatens several hibernating bat species with extinction and there are few effective treatment strategies. The skin microbiome is increasingly understood to play a large role in determining disease outcome. We isolated bacteria from the skin of four bat species, and co-cultured these isolates with P. destructans to identify bacteria that might inhibit or kill P. destructans. We then conducted two reciprocal challenge experiments in vitro with six bacterial isolates (all in the genus Pseudomonas) to quantify the effect of these bacteria on the growth of P. destructans. All six Pseudomonas isolates significantly inhibited growth of P. destructans compared to non-inhibitory control bacteria, and two isolates performed significantly better than others in suppressing P. destructans growth for at least 35 days. In both challenge experiments, the extent of suppression of P. destructans growth was dependent on the initial concentration of P. destructans and the initial concentration of the bacterial isolate. These results show that bacteria found naturally occurring on bats can inhibit the growth of P. destructans in vitro and should be studied further as a possible probiotic to protect bats from white-nose syndrome. In addition, the presence of these bacteria may influence disease outcomes among individuals, populations, and species.

Increases in anthropogenic movement have led to a rise in pathogen introductions and the emergence of infectious diseases in naive host communities worldwide. We combined empirical data and mathematical models to examine changes in disease dynamics in little brown bat ( Myotis lucifugus ) populations following the introduction of the emerging fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans , which causes the disease white-nose syndrome. We found that infection intensity was much lower in persisting populations than in declining populations where the fungus has recently invaded. Fitted models indicate that this is most consistent with a reduction in the growth rate of the pathogen when fungal loads become high. The data are inconsistent with the evolution of tolerance or an overall reduced pathogen growth rate that might be caused by environmental factors. The existence of resistance in some persisting populations of little brown bats offers a glimmer of hope that a precipitously declining species will persist in the face of this deadly pathogen. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences’.