No abstract

Land use change is characterized by a high diversity of change trajectories depending on the local conditions, regional context and external influences. Policy intervention aims to counteract the negative consequences of these changes and provide incentives for positive developments. Region typologies are a common tool to cluster regions with similar characteristics and possibly similar policy needs. This paper provides a typology of land use change in Europe at a high spatial resolution based on a series of different scenarios of land use change for the period 2000-2030. A series of simulation models ranging from the global to the landscape level are used to translate scenario conditions in terms of demographic, economic and policy change into changes in European land use pattern. A typology developed based on these simulation results identifies the main trajectories of change across Europe: agricultural abandonment, agricultural expansion and urbanization. The results are combined with common typologies of landscape and rurality. The findings indicate that the typologies based on current landscape and ruralities are poor indicators of the land use dynamics simulated for the regions. It is advocated that typologies based on (simulated) future dynamics of land change are more appropriate to identify regions with potentially similar policy needs.Keywords Typology Á Europe Á Land use and land cover change Á Abandonment Á Urbanization Á Rural typology Á Landscape Á Model

De herziening van de Europese regelgeving voor het Gemeenschappelijk Landbouwbeleid brengt met zich mee dat lidstaten een nationaal strategisch plan moeten opstellen. Daarin leggen zij vast welke economische, ecologische en sociale doelen uit de Verordening Strategische Plannen door de lidstaat worden nagestreefd en hoe die te bereiken. Er moeten keuzes worden gemaakt over de te gebruiken interventies en de verdeling daarover van de beschikbare Europese en nationale middelen. Om de overheid te ondersteunen bij de besluitvorming is een analyse uitgevoerd van de doelen, behoeften en opgaven voor de Nederlandse landbouw, de (kosten)effectiviteit van interventies, mogelijke beleidsvarianten en de economische, ecologische en sociale effecten daarvan. Op grond daarvan worden aanbevelingen gedaan voor een doeltreffende en doelmatige inzet van de GLB-middelen.The review of the EU Common Agricultural Policy requires Member States to develop a national strategic plan, implementing the economic, ecological and social objectives of the Strategic Plans Regulation in the form of targets for their specific situation. Suitable interventions need to be selected and EU and national budget allocated to those interventions. In order to support the authorities in the policy-making process, an analysis was carried out of the objectives, needs and challenges for the Netherlands' agriculture, the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of available interventions, policy options and the economic, ecological and social impact of those options. Recommendations are made how to best use the Netherlands' CAP budget from a perspective of effectiveness and efficiency.

No abstract