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The potential impact of climate change by the year 2050 on British grazing livestock systems is assessed through the use of simulation models of farming systems. The submodels, consisting of grass production, livestock feeding, livestock thermal balance, the thermal balance of naturally ventilated buildings and a stochastic weather generator, are described. These are integrated to form system models for sheep, beef calves and dairy cows. They are applied to scenarios representing eastern (dry) lowlands, western (wet) lowlands and uplands. The results show that such systems should be able to adapt to the expected climatic changes. There is likely to be a small increase in grass production, possibly allowing an increase in total productivity in some cases

The potential impact of climate change by the year 2050 on intensive livestock systems in Britain is assessed through the use of simulation models of farming systems. The submodels comprise livestock feeding, livestock thermal balance and the thermal balance of controlled environment buildings and a stochastic weather generator. These are integrated to form system models for growing pigs and broiler chickens. They are applied to scenarios typical of SE England, which is the warmest region of the country and represents the worst case. For both species the frequency of severe heat stress is substantially increased, with a consequent risk of mortality. To offset this, it would be necessary to reduce stocking densities considerably, or to invest in improved ventilation or cooling equipment. Other effects on production are likely to be small

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Regional groundwater resource models are often built to improve confidence in predicted groundwater abstraction impacts on river flows and groundwater levels. By explicitly representing the aquifer system geometry, properties and boundaries, together with transient recharge and abstraction pressures, such models provide a robust platform to support abstraction impact assessment, alongside evidence from field data and investigations. Regulatory drivers include the European Union Habitats and Water Framework Directives and other abstraction licensing decisions. This paper presents examples of the spatial and temporal patterns of groundwater abstraction impacts predicted by several models. A variety of presentation formats are used to illustrate the simulated flow impacts of abstractions both individually, and in combination with other surface water abstractions and discharges. Model predictions from a range of abstraction, aquifer, and river settings are often more complex than would be suggested by simpler tools and approaches. In many cases, absolute low-flow impacts are less than long-term groundwater abstraction rates. The ‘real world’ hydrogeological mechanisms behind these impact patterns are discussed. The paper also recommends a protocol for using regional models to assess individual licensed groundwater abstraction impacts across the full range of historic climate conditions (typically, as monitored since 1970) and in the context of other operational artificial influences.

The authors analyse water temperatures in seven streams and two watercress beds in southern England, and examine some of the biological implications.

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