The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is used in several global and regional modeling systems. In this paper, we introduce model developments included in CLM version 5 (CLM5), which is the default land component for CESM2. We assess an ensemble of simulations, including prescribed and prognostic vegetation state, multiple forcing data sets, and CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5, against a range of metrics including from the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMBv2) package. CLM5 includes new and updated processes and Key Points: • Updated Community Land Model has more hydrological and ecological process fidelity and more comprehensive representation of land management. • The model is systematically evaluated using International Land Model Benchmarking system and shows marked improvement over prior versions. parameterizations: (1) dynamic land units, (2) updated parameterizations and structure for hydrology and snow (spatially explicit soil depth, dry surface layer, revised groundwater scheme, revised canopy interception and canopy snow processes, updated fresh snow density, simple firn model, and Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport), (3) plant hydraulics and hydraulic redistribution, (4) revised nitrogen cycling (flexible leaf stoichiometry, leaf N optimization for photosynthesis, and carbon costs for plant nitrogen uptake), (5) global crop model with six crop types and time-evolving irrigated areas and fertilization rates, (6) updated urban building energy, (7) carbon isotopes, and (8) updated stomatal physiology. New optional features include demographically structured dynamic vegetation model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator), ozone damage to plants, and fire trace gas emissions coupling to the atmosphere. Conclusive establishment of improvement or degradation of individual variables or metrics is challenged by forcing uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model structural complexity, but the multivariate metrics presented here suggest a general broad improvement from CLM4 to CLM5. Plain Language Summary The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land component of the widely used Community Earth System Model (CESM). Here, we introduce model developments included in CLM version 5 (CLM5), the default land component for CESM2 which will be used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). CLM5 includes many new and updated processes including (1) hydrology and snow features such as spatially explicit soil depth, canopy snow processes, a simple firn model, and a more mechanistic river model, (2) plant hydraulics and hydraulic redistribution, (3) revised nitrogen cycling with flexible leaf stoichiometry, leaf N optimization for photosynthesis, and carbon costs for plant nitrogen uptake, (4) expansion to six crop types (global) and time-evolving irrigated areas and fertilization rates, (5) improved urban building energy model, and (6) carbon isotopes. New optional features include a demographically structured dynamic vegetat...

Two foundational questions about sustainability are "How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?" and "How do human decisions affect these trajectories?" Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

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Southwestern North America faces an imminent transition to a warmer, more arid climate, and it is critical to understand how these changes will affect the carbon balance of southwest ecosystems. In order to test our hypothesis that differential responses of production and respiration to temperature and moisture shape the carbon balance across a range of spatio-temporal scales, we quantified net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 and carbon storage across the New Mexico Elevational Gradient, which consists of six eddy-covariance sites representing biomes ranging from desert to subalpine conifer forest. Within sites, hotter and drier conditions were associated with an increasing advantage of respiration relative to production such that daily carbon uptake peaked at intermediate temperatureswith carbon release often occurring on the hottest days -and increased with soil moisture. Across sites, biotic adaptations modified but did not override the dominant effects of climate. Carbon uptake increased with decreasing temperature and increasing precipitation across the elevational gradient; NEE ranged from a source of $30 g C m À2 yr À1 in the desert grassland to a sink of $350 g C m À2 yr À1 in the subalpine conifer forest. Total aboveground carbon storage increased dramatically with elevation, ranging from 186 g C m À2 in the desert grassland to 26 600 g C m À2 in the subalpine conifer forest. These results make sense in the context of global patterns in NEE and biomass storage, and support that increasing temperature and decreasing moisture shift the carbon balance of ecosystems in favor of respiration, such that the potential for ecosystems to sequester and store carbon is reduced under hot and/or dry conditions. This implies that projected climate change will trigger a substantial net release of carbon in these New Mexico ecosystems ($3 Gt CO 2 statewide by the end of the century), thereby acting as a positive feedback to climate change.