Background. Anatomic location has been identified by several investigators as a significant prognostic factor for patients with primary cutaneous melanoma (CM). However, the best determination of higher and lower risk sites is still controversial, and the biologic significance of tumor site in the course of primary CM is unknown. The aim of the present study was to identify higher and lower risk sites based on multivariate analysis. Methods. A series of 5093 patients with invasive primary cutaneous melanoma followed from 1970 to 1988 at four university centers in Germany was investigated using the multivariate Cox proportional hazard model to analyze the importance of anatomic location for survival probability. Results. The anatomic location was found to be a highly significant prognostic factor for patients with primary melanoma by multivariate analysis (P < 0.0001). An optimized classification into sites of higher and lower risk with respect to survival was evaluated by multivariate analysis controlling for the possible confounding effects of the other significant prognostic factors. Relative to the lower leg as the prognostically favorable baseline, the following locations were associated with a significantly higher risk of death caused by primary cutaneous melanoma: back and breast (thorax), upper arm, neck, and scalp (TANS regions). The lower trunk, thigh, lower leg, foot, lower arms, hands, and face were identified as lower risk sites. Conclusions. Anatomic location was confirmed as an independent prognostic factor for patients with primary cutaneous melanoma. The TANS regions were identified as high risk sites, and the lower trunk, thigh, lower leg, foot, lower arms, hands, and face were identified as intermediate sites.

Background. Numerous investigations have examined prognostic factors for patients with primary cutaneous melanoma. However, only a few studies have been published on the definition of prognostic groups. The first aim of the present study was to determine the relative importance of different prognostic factors in a large collective study. The second aim was to define prognostic groups of patients based on combinations of prognostic factors and to define a model that allows the estimation of individual survival probability. Methods. Long term follow‐up of 5264 patients with invasive primary cutaneous melanoma was performed from 1970 to 1988 at four German University Departments of Dermatology (Berlin‐Steglitz, Münster‐Hornheide, Tübingen, and Würzburg). The multivariate Cox model was used to analyze 5093 patients, and 4371 patients with complete information were included in a classification and regression tree analysis (CART). Results. Tumor thickness, sex, anatomic location, and level of invasion were highly significant prognostic factors according to the multivariate analysis (P < 0.0001). However, histologic subtype and age influenced prognosis less significantly (P < 0.05). The CART analysis resulted in 12 groups defined mainly by tumor thickness, sex, and anatomic location, which were combined i five prognostic groups. The prognostic stratification defined by the five groups was superior compared with standard TNM model. Ten‐year survival rates of the five groups ranged from 97% to 14% (P < 0.0001), and an equation was used to calculate individual survival probabilities based on the significant factors of the Cox model. Conclusions. Consideration of all significant prognostic factors of patients with primary cutaneous melanoma investigated in the present study allows for definition of prognostic groups with a more reliable estimation of prognosis than by previous staging systems and also enables calculation of individual survival probabilities.

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Our gene score defines patient risk and need for therapy in melanoma. The score has the potential to be utilized in clinical routine, since it is quantitative, robust, simple, and independent of AJCC stage and sample purity.

Background. Maximum tumor thickness and level of invasion are known to be the most important prognostic factors for patients with primary cutaneous melanoma. However, the classification of tumor thickness and the question of whether the combination of tumor thickness and level of invasion provides a better prognostic classification than tumor thickness alone are still matters of debate. The present study examined the relationship between tumor thickness and survival probability to define cutoff points of tumor thickness. Secondly, it investigated the prognostic value of the combination of tumor thickness and level of invasion as proposed in the current TNM classification system. Methods. A series of 5093 patients with invasive primary cutaneous melanoma followed from 1970 to 1988 at four University centers in Germany (Departments of Dermatology in Tübingen, Würzburg, Berlin‐Steglitz, and at the Fachklinik) were analyzed by multivariate Cox models. Results. The relationship between tumor thickness and relative risk of death caused by melanoma was found to be almost linear to a tumor thickness of 6 mm. For tumors greater than 6 mm, no further marked increase in relative risk was observed. The stratification of tumor thickness with endpoints at 1,2, and 4 mm resulted in the best fit to the authors' data among all classifications with three endpoints, but differences were only slight. By multivariate analysis, the combination of tumor thickness and level of invasion as proposed by the current TNM classification were found to be prognostically less significant than tumor thickness alone. The prognostic influence of level of invasion was proved statistically only for tumor thickness less than or equal to 1 mm. Conclusions. The proposed stratification of tumor thickness with cutoff points at 1, 2, and 4 mm was supported by multivariate statistical analysis. The analysis of the current TNM staging system indicates the precedence of tumor thickness for the staging of patients with primary cutaneous melanoma in the case of discordance between tumor thickness and level of invasion.

Ki-67 and HLA-DQ may be useful for risk assessments in primary melanomas.

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