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The article contemplates and evaluates the changes in the Russian economy precipitated by the epidemic of a new coronavirus. The key constraints of the development of the Russian economy in the medium and long term perspectives are analyzed. The basic action strategies and a set of economic policy measures to strengthen the potential for economic growth in Russia are introduced. The sources and instruments of financing economic growth in current conditions are substantiated.
The black swan of the coronavirus pandemic confused all plans for 2020 and created a global recession unprecedented for the last century. Russia managed to limit the scale of the GDP’s and population mortality’s fall, but the losses provoked, in particular, by the seven years of stagnation, are great. Russia will be able to restore pre-crisis production levels in a year and a half, perhaps faster, but it will be extremely difficult to compensate for the population’s losses. There is a consensus that a transition to sustainable long-term growth with the growth rates exceeding the global ones will require powerful systemic changes and a high level of public trust. The most acute societal challenge is a low level of personal income, along with high inequality of income, wealth, and social opportunities. The formation of a new model of development, combining resource and hydrocarbon advantages with a new model of human capital, infrastructure and technologies, is decisive for long-term growth. We can do this only under condition of creation a new financial and managerial system in the country.
The Russian economy is recovering faster than previously expected, but it is lags behind i world leaders in growth and scale of social programs. The most acute societal challenge remains low incomes and high social inequalities. For long-term sustainable growth, the transition to a new model of human wealth development, social justice, knowledge and technology economics is crucial. Tight fiscal rules and monetary policies are hampering this transition.
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