These data argue for the potential clinical utility of JCV serology for PML risk stratification. However, further investigations of fluctuations in serostatus and of antibody levels for a more precise understanding of the predictive value are warranted.

JC virus (JCV) is an opportunistic virus known to cause progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. Anti-JC virus (Anti-JCV) antibody prevalence in a large, geographically diverse, multi-national multiple sclerosis (MS) cohort was compared in a cross-sectional study. Overall, anti-JCV antibody prevalence was 57.6%. Anti-JCV antibody prevalence in MS patients ranged from approximately 47% to 68% across these countries: Norway, 47.4%; Denmark, 52.6%; Israel, 56.6%; France, 57.6%; Italy, 58.3%; Sweden, 59.0%; Germany, 59.1%; Austria, 66.7% and Turkey, 67.7%. Prevalence increased with age (from 49.5% in patients < 30 years of age to 66.5% in patients ≥ 60 years of age; p < 0.0001 comparing all age categories), was lower in females than in males (55.8% versus 61.9%; p < 0.0001) and was not affected by prior immunosuppressant or natalizumab use.

Risk assessment for natalizumab-associated progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (Nat-PML) comprises the anti-JC virus (JCV) antibody index (AI). The anti-JCV AI was longitudinally determined in a natalizumab-treated MS cohort (Nat-MS, n = 468) and samples of Nat-PML patients (n = 15). In Nat-MS, the median AI was 0.8 (25th to 75th percentile, 0.2–2.8) with an intra-individual coefficient of variation (CV) of 9.8% (4.8–17.6). Patients with an AI ≤ 0.9 exhibited higher CV. The AI was higher (3.4 (3.1–3.6)) in samples before Nat-PML diagnosis than in seropositive Nat-MS (2.4 (1.0–3.4), n = 298, p = 0.010). AIs ≥ 3.0 were associated with a 14.5-fold (95% CI 2.3–90.4) increased PML risk (p = 0.002). Groups with an AI below 1.5 exhibit higher variability or even serostatus fluctuation. AI dynamics require further investigation.