During 2006During -2007, the KwaZulu-Natal coast of South Africa was exposed to several large swell events (H o > 3 m), near the peak of the lunar nodal cycle, causing shoreline recession. The largest swell (H s = 8.5 m) struck the coast on the March equinox (18th-20th) and generated a strong storm-return flow. Observations made before, during and after record dramatic coastal erosion (shoreline recession of up to 40 m and substantial property damage). This swell event removed the semi-continuous nearshore bar system and 'conditioned' the coast such that lesser subsequent swell events accomplished much greater amounts of coastal erosion than expected (up to 100 m at certain erosion hotspots) because waves reached the coast without significant energy dissipation. Subsequent bar generation rebuilt the inshore bars within six months. The styles of erosion during the March '07 event and other 2007 swells were markedly different. Lesser swells are focused by headlands and result in megarip development and activation of erosion hotspots. The March '07 event still-water level was raised (equinoctial spring high tide and a storm surge of 0.33-0.45 m) to a level that rendered most headlands (and erosion hotspots) ineffective and resulted in laterally extensive erosion of soft shorelines. Results record cumulative effects of successive swell events on coastal behaviour that proved to be critical in enabling erosion to proceed at rapid rates after the coast had been initially destabilized. Unlike hurricanes and tsunamis, surges associated with swell events are relatively minor and therefore extensive erosion is linked with high lunar tides. There is circumstantial evidence that swell-induced erosion follows the broad 18.6 yr lunar nodal tidal cycle when the chances of large swells coinciding with high water levels are increased.

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Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1∶100 year flood event to a 1∶80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1∶100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.

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Abstract-Sinkholes are an unpredictable geohazard that endangers life and property in dolomitic terrains. Sinkholes are a significant threat in Gauteng, South Africa's most populated and urbanised province. Small-scale surface subsidence is frequently present prior to the collapse of a sinkhole. Therefore, the presence of precursory surface deformation can be exploited to develop early warning systems. Spaceborne SAR interferometry (DInSAR) is able to monitor small-scale surface deformation over large areas and can be used to detect and measure precursors to sinkhole development. This paper investigates the use of repeat-pass DInSAR to detect sinkhole precursors in the Gauteng Province. Twenty stripmap acquisitions from TerraSAR-X were acquired over a full year. DInSAR results revealed the presence of three previously unknown deformation features, one of which could be confirmed by subsequent field investigations. Furthermore, a water supply pipeline ruptured 6 months after the initial observation. The detection of the deformation, therefore, provided a viable early warning to landowners who were unaware of the subsidence. Detected deformation features were between 40 m and 100 m in diameter. The maximum displacement measured was 50 mm over 55 days. Despite the successful detection, seven sinkhole events occurred in the observation period for which no deformation could be detected. The results indicate that high-resolution, X-band interferometry is able to monitor dolomite-induced instability in an urban environment. However, considerations related to SAR interferometry and physical sinkhole properties need to be addressed before DInSAR can be used in an operational early warning system. Index Terms-Geophysical measurements, hazardous areas, interferometry, land surface, spaceborne radar, synthetic aperture radar (SAR).

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Abstract:In fire-prone ecosystems, periodic fires are vital for ecosystem functioning. Fire managers seek to promote the optimal fire regime by managing fire season and frequency requiring detailed information on the extent and date of previous burns. This paper investigates a Normalised Difference α-Angle (NDαI) approach to burn-scar mapping using C-band data. Polarimetric decompositions are used to derive α-angles from pre-burn and post-burn scenes and NDαI is calculated to identify decreases in vegetation between the scenes. The technique was tested in an area affected by a wildfire in January 2016 in the Western Cape, South Africa. The quad-pol H-A-α decomposition was applied to RADARSAT-2 data and the dual-pol H-α decomposition was applied to Sentinel-1A data. The NDαI results were compared to a burn scar extracted from Sentinel-2A data. High overall accuracies of 97.4% (Kappa = 0.72) and 94.8% (Kappa = 0.57) were obtained for RADARSAT-2 and Sentinel-1A, respectively. However, large omission errors were found and correlated strongly with areas of high local incidence angle for both datasets. The combined use of data from different orbits will likely reduce these errors. Furthermore, commission errors were observed, most notably on Sentinel-1A results. These errors may be due to the inability of the dual-pol H-α decomposition to effectively distinguish between scattering mechanisms. Despite these errors, the results revealed that burnt areas could be extracted and were in good agreement with the results from Sentinel-2A. Therefore, the approach can be considered in areas where persistent cloud cover or smoke prevents the extraction of burnt area information using conventional multispectral approaches.

Sinkholes are global phenomena with significant consequences on the natural-and built environment. Significant efforts have been devoted to the assessment of sinkhole hazards to predict the spatial and temporal occurrence of future sinkholes as well as to detect small-scale deformation prior to collapse. Sinkhole hazard maps are created by considering the distribution of past sinkholes in conjunction with their geomorphic features, controlling conditions and triggering mechanisms. Quantitative risk assessment then involves the statistical analysis of sinkhole events in relation to these conditions with the aim of identifying high risk areas. Remote sensing techniques contribute to the field of sinkhole hazard assessment by providing tools for the population of sinkhole inventories and lend themselves to the monitoring of precursory deformation prior to sinkhole development. In this paper, we outline the background to sinkhole formation and sinkhole hazard assessment. We provide a review of earth observation techniques, both for the compilation of sinkhole inventories as well as the monitoring of precursors to sinkhole development. We discuss the advantages and limitations of these approaches and conclude by highlighting the potential role of radar interferometry in the early detection of sinkhole-induced instability resulting in a potential decrease in the risk to human lives and infrastructure by enabling proactive remediation.