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The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate. (KEY TERMS: integrated regional assessment; climate sensitivity and vulnerability; management adaptability; long-term water resources planning; hydroclimatology; Columbia River Basin; climate variability; climate change.)

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Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación.

Climate variability and change are considerably important for a wide range of human activities and natural ecosystems. Climate science has made major advances during the last two decades, yet climate information is neither routinely useful for nor used in planning. What is needed is a mechanism, a national climate service (NCS), to connect climate science to decision-relevant questions and support building capacity to anticipate, plan for, and adapt to climate fluctuations. This article contributes to the national debate for an NCS by describing the rationale for building an NCS, the functions and services it would provide, and how it should be designed and evaluated. The NCS is most effectively achieved as a federal interagency partnership with critically important participation by regional climate centers, state climatologists, the emerging National Integrated Drought Information System, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences Assessment (RISA) teams in a sustained relationship with a wide variety of stakeholders. Because the NCS is a service, and because evidence indicates that the regional spatial scale is most important for delivering climate services, given subnational geographical/geophysical complexity, attention is focused on lessons learned from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group's 10 years of experience, the first of the NOAA RISA teams.Pacific Northwest climate ͉ regional integrated sciences and assessments T he last 20 years have seen exciting advancements in climate science, from seasonal forecasting to understanding anthropogenic climate change. Equally exciting is the growing awareness in scientific and resource management communities of the opportunities and challenges presented by these scientific advancements. Capturing the full potential of this increasing synergism between the producers and users of climate information, however, requires more than can be provided by existing institutional arrangements. What is needed is a sustained mechanism for promoting science to support decision-relevant questions, translating new climate information into relevant decision environments, and building regional and national capacity to anticipate, plan for, and adapt to climate variability and change.

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Experimental data on the stereoselectivity of base-catalyzed 1,2-elimination reactions that produce conjugated carbonyl compounds are scarce in spite of the importance of these reactions in organic and biochemistry. As part of a comprehensive study in this area, we have synthesized stereospecifically-deuterated beta-tosyloxybutanoate esters and thioesters and studied the stereoselectivity of their elimination reactions under non-ion pairing conditions. With the availability of both the (2R*,3R*) and (2R*,3S*) diastereomers the innate stereoselectivity could be determined unambiguously. (1)H and (2)H NMR data show that these substrates produce 5-6% syn elimination, the usual amount for acyclic substrates undergoing E2 reactions. Contrary to earlier suggestions, activation by a carbonyl group has virtually no influence upon the stereoselectivity. Elimination of the (2R*,3R*) diastereomer of the beta-tosyloxyester and thioester produces 21-25% of the (Z)-alkene, much more than observed with a poorer beta-nucleofuge. A relatively large amount of (Z)-alkene product seems to be a good marker for an E2 pathway, in which the transition state is E1cB-like, rather than an E1cB(irrev) mechanism. Syn KIE values were higher than those for anti elimination for the esters as well as the thioesters. Experimental challenges to the synthesis of stereospecifically-deuterated beta-tosyloxyesters are discussed.