The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Agriculture and development transform forest ecosystems to human-modified landscapes. Decades of research in ecology have generated myriad concepts for the appropriate management of these landscapes. Yet, these concepts are often contradictory and apply at different spatial scales, making the design of biodiversity-friendly landscapes challenging. Here, we combine concepts with empirical support to design optimal landscape scenarios for forest-dwelling species. The supported concepts indicate that appropriately sized landscapes should contain ≥ 40% forest cover, although higher percentages are likely needed in the tropics. Forest cover should be configured with c. 10% in a very large forest patch, and the remaining 30% in many evenly dispersed smaller patches and semi-natural treed elements (e.g. vegetation corridors). Importantly, the patches should be embedded in a high-quality matrix. The proposed landscape scenarios represent an optimal compromise between delivery of goods and services to humans and preserving most forest wildlife, and can therefore guide forest preservation and restoration strategies.

Aim Connectivity is a key determinant of the distribution and abundance of organisms and is greatly influenced by anthropogenic landscape modification, yet we lack a synthetic perspective on the magnitude and extent of matrix effects on connectivity. We synthesize results from published studies to understand the importance of matrix effects on fragmented animal populations.Location Global. MethodsWe conduct a meta-analysis of 283 fragmented populations representing 184 terrestrial animal taxa to determine the strength of matrix composition effects on the occurrence and abundance of animals in fragmented habitat.Results Studies that use data on matrix composition report greater effects on abundance and occupancy of fragmented populations than studies that define connectivity without regard to the surrounding matrix (i.e. 'binary' studies that describe only characteristics of patch habitat).Main conclusions Our findings underscore that conservation strategies must consider the importance of matrix habitat, have important implications for metapopulation and metacommunity paradigms, and provide direct large-scale, multi-taxa evidence that matrix habitat is an important driver of ecological dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes.

Human activities often replace native forests with warmer, modified habitats that represent novel thermal environments for biodiversity. Reducing biodiversity loss hinges upon identifying which species are most sensitive to the environmental conditions that result from habitat modification. Drawing on case studies and a meta-analysis, we examined whether observed and modelled thermal traits, including heat tolerances, variation in body temperatures, and evaporative water loss, explained variation in sensitivity of ectotherms to habitat modification. Low heat tolerances of lizards and amphibians and high evaporative water loss of amphibians were associated with increased sensitivity to habitat modification, often explaining more variation than non-thermal traits. Heat tolerances alone explained 24-66% (mean = 38%) of the variation in species responses, and these trends were largely consistent across geographic locations and spatial scales. As habitat modification alters local microclimates, the thermal biology of species will likely play a key role in the reassembly of terrestrial communities.

Habitat conversion is driving biodiversity loss and restructuring species assemblages across the globe. Responses to habitat conversion vary widely, however, and little is known about the degree to which shared evolutionary history underlies changes in species richness and composition. We analyzed data from 48 studies, comprising 438 species on five continents, to understand how taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of amphibian assemblages shifts in response to habitat conversion. We found that evolutionary history explains the majority of variation in species' responses to habitat conversion, with specific clades scattered across the amphibian tree of life being favored by human land uses. Habitat conversion led to an average loss of 139 million years of amphibian evolutionary history within assemblages, high species and lineage turnover at landscape scales, and phylogenetic homogenization at the global scale (despite minimal taxonomic homogenization). Lineage turnover across habitats was greatest in lowland tropical regions where large species pools and stable climates have perhaps given rise to many microclimatically specialized species. Together, our results indicate that strong phylogenetic clustering of species' responses to habitat conversion mediates nonrandom structuring of local assemblages and loss of global phylogenetic diversity. In an age of rapid global change, identifying clades that are most sensitive to habitat conversion will help prioritize use of limited conservation resources.

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Aim: Habitat modification is causing widespread declines in biodiversity and the homogenization of biotas. Amphibians are especially threatened by habitat modification, yet we know little about why some species persist or thrive in the face of this threat whereas others decline. Our aim was to identify intrinsic factors that explain variation among amphibians in their sensitivity to habitat modification (SHM), factors that could help target groups of species for conservation.Location: Global. Time period: 1986-2015Major taxon studied: Amphibians. Methods:We quantified SHM using species abundances in natural and altered habitats as reported in published field surveys. We first examined associations between local SHM and rangewide threatened status, population trends and invasiveness. We then evaluated the importance of intrinsic and extrinsic variables in explaining species SHM using multiple comparative methods.Our analyses included over 200 species that could be ranked with confidence from 47 studies across five continents.Results: Amphibians species varied considerably in local SHM. High SHM was associated with elevated range-wide extinction risk and declining population trends. Species that were tolerant of habitat modification were most likely to be invasive outside their native range. Geographical range size was the most important intrinsic predictor and was negatively associated with SHM. Larval habitat was also an important predictor, but was tightly coupled with phylogenetic position.Main conclusions: Narrowly distributed species whose larvae develop on land or in lotic habitats are most sensitive to habitat modification. However, other unmeasured, phylogenetically constrained traits could underlie the effect of larval habitat. Species range size is frequently correlated with global extinction risk in vertebrates, and our analysis extends this macroecological pattern to the sensitivity of amphibians to local habitat loss, a proximate driver of extinction. These general patterns of SHM should help identify those groups of amphibians most at risk in an era of rapid habitat loss and scarce conservation resources. K E Y W O R D Sbiodiversity, conservation, habitat loss, land use, life history, matrix tolerance, specialization, species traits, susceptibility, threatened 700 |

Land-cover and climate change are both expected to alter species distributions and contribute to future biodiversity loss. However, the combined effects of land-cover and climate change on assemblages, especially at the landscape scale, remain understudied. Lowland tropical amphibians may be particularly susceptible to changes in land cover and climate warming because many species have narrow thermal safety margins resulting from air and body temperatures that are close to their critical thermal maxima (CT ). We examined how changing thermal landscapes may alter the area of thermally suitable habitat (TSH) for tropical amphibians. We measured microclimates in 6 land-cover types and CT of 16 frog species in lowland northeastern Costa Rica. We used a biophysical model to estimate core body temperatures of frogs exposed to habitat-specific microclimates while accounting for evaporative cooling and behavior. Thermally suitable habitat area was estimated as the portion of the landscape where species CT exceeded their habitat-specific maximum body temperatures. We projected changes in TSH area 80 years into the future as a function of land-cover change only, climate change only, and combinations of land-cover and climate-change scenarios representing low and moderate rates of change. Projected decreases in TSH area ranged from 16% under low emissions and reduced forest loss to 30% under moderate emissions and business-as-usual land-cover change. Under a moderate emissions scenario (A1B), climate change alone contributed to 1.7- to 4.5-fold greater losses in TSH area than land-cover change only, suggesting that future decreases in TSH from climate change may outpace structural habitat loss. Forest-restricted species had lower mean CT than species that occurred in altered habitats, indicating that thermal tolerances will likely shape assemblages in changing thermal landscapes. In the face of ongoing land-cover and climate change, it will be critical to consider changing thermal landscapes in strategies to conserve ectotherm species.