The naturcil rcite of unemployment is calculated based on Lilien 's( 1982) notion thnt an increase in the sectoral dispersion I / demand results in a rise in ritiemployment f o r ti given level of aggregate demcind. In contrust to ecirlier applictitions. the dispersion measure is biisetl on sectorti1 employment growth rtites purged .f tiggregtite inJlrietices usitrg ti VAR model. We find that most qf the rise in unemplosnent in Aii.strti1iu since the 1970s reflects tire itrcwtise in the riticlerlyinl: trtitiird rtite. This finding i.v hroticlly consistent with Lilien 's resiilts ji)r the US (is well (is etirlier resultsJbr Aiistrditi tirid Ctintidti.
We model the effects of changes in a federal government’s inter-regional transfers within the context of a CGE model of a federal system in which regional governments act to maximise the welfare of the residents of their region subject to the effects of their decision on regional economic outcomes. Regional governments are modelled as players in a non-cooperative game. Simulations are conducted with six versions of a small two-region model, each calibrated for a particular Australian state and the rest of the nation. We show that a change in the level of transfers has little influence on per-capita private consumption, government consumption and welfare, and that its main effect is to induce migration from the donor region to the recipient region. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin/Heidelberg 2003Interregional transfers, political economy, computable general equilibrium analysis, fiscal federalism, interregional migration,
GROENEWOLD N. and HAGGER A. J. (2003) Natural-rate estimates for the Australian states: an SVAR approach, Reg. Studies 37 , 251-263. It has long been recognized that economic policy based on national economic indicators may be inappropriate when evaluated from the point of view of individual regions making up the national economy. One indicator which has recently been widely used as a basis for the formulation of macroeconomic policy is the natural rate of unemployment. There have been various estimates of the natural rate for Australia as a whole in the recent past and these have been used for the assessment of macroeconomic policy. There are, however, no estimates of natural rates for the Australian States and so no basis for the evaluation of macroeconomic policy from the perspective of the States. This paper fills this gap in the literature and reports estimates of a series for the natural rate for each of the Australian States derived from a structural vector auto-regressive (SVAR) model. We compare the estimated natural rates to each other and to estimates of the national natural rate. We go on to an evaluation of national economic policy from the point of view of the States. GROENEWOLD N. et HAGGER A. J. (2003) L'estimation des taux naturels pour les Etats australiens: une approche SVAR, Reg. Studies 37 , 251-263. Depuis de nombreuses années, on considère que la politique économique fondée sur des clignotants économiques nationaux pourrait s' avérer mal choisie du point de vue régional. Un clignotant dont on s'est beaucoup servi pour élaborer la politique macroé conomique c'est le taux de chômage naturel. Dans les dernières années, diverses sont les estimations du taux naturel pour ce qui est de l'Australie, et on s'en est servi pour faire le bilan de la politique macroéconomique. Toujours est-il qu'il manque d'estimations au niveau des Etats australiens et, par la suite, il n'y a aucune é valuation de la politique macroéconomique du point de vue des Etats. Cet article cherche à colmater cette brèche et à signaler des estimations d'une série relative au taux naturel pour chacun des Etats australiens et qui découle d'un modèle auto-régressif vectoriel structurel (structural vector auto-regressive; SVAR). Les estimations des taux naturels sont comparées les unes aux autres et aux estimations du taux naturel national. Il s'ensuit une évaluation de la politique é conomique nationale du point de vue des Etats. GROENEWOLD N. und HAGGER A. J. (2003) Naturratenberechnungen für die Staaten Australiens: ein SVAR Ansatz, Reg. Studies 37 , 251-263. Es ist eine altbekannte Tatsache, daß Wirtschaftspolitik auf der Grundlage gesamtstaatlicher Wirtschaftsindikatoren sich als ungeeignet erweisen kann, wenn sie vom Standpunkt der individuellen Regionen bewertet wird, welche zusammen die Volkswirtschaft ausmachen. Ein in letzter Zeit oft als Grundlage für die Formulierung einer makroöikonomischen Wirtschaftspolitik verwendeter Indikator ist die natürliche Rate der Erwerbslosigkeit. In jüngster Zeit sind verschiedene Berechnu...
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