The application of a computer model called Rimpuff for simulating the airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is described. Rimpuff is more sophisticated and accurate than other FMD simulation models previously described. It can be run on a desktop computer and performs analyses very quickly. It can be linked to a geographical information system and so the information generated can be integrated with geographical and demographical data for display in a format that can be easily assimilated and transmitted electronically. The system was validated using historical data from outbreaks of FMD in France and the UK in 1981, and from Denmark and the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) in 1982. A very good fit was obtained between the direction of the plumes of virus simulated by the model and the spread of disease from France to the UK in 1981. Although cattle in the UK were infected during the episode, the concentrations of airborne virus in the plumes simulated by the model were beneath the infectivity threshold for cattle. It was concluded from the analysis that the number of pigs infected in France, and therefore the source concentration of airborne virus, was probably much higher than was recorded at the time of the outbreaks. Analysis of the Denmark/GDR episode pointed to the possibility that the source of virus for the 1982 epidemic in Denmark could have been one or more unreported outbreaks involving pigs in the former GDR.

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Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) can be spread by a variety of mechanisms, including wind. Simulation models, developed to predict the risk of airborne spread, have played an important part in decision making in some outbreaks. The amount of airborne virus excreted as well as the minimal infectious dose (MID) of FMDV for different species are important determinants of airborne spread. The objective of this study was to obtain data for the O1 Lausanne, O SKR 2000 and O UKG 2001 strains of FMDV to enhance the capability of such models. Pigs were exposed to naturally generated aerosols of the three strains using an experimental design which delivered high doses of the two strains O1 Lausanne and O SKR 2000 over a short period, or of the O UKG 2001 strain over an extended period. The average excretion of the O1 Lausanne strain was 106·4 TCID50 per pig per hour. The excretion of the O SKR 2000 strain averaged 105·8 and the O UKG 2001 strain 106·1 TCID per pig per 24 h. The results show that the previous estimate of ‘above’ 800 TCID50 as the MID50 for the O1 Lausanne strain is a considerable under-estimate and that the real dose may be as high as 6000 TCID50. A dose of around 650 TCID50 of the O SKR 2000 strain failed to infect any pigs. Thus, the aerosol MID50 for pigs for this isolate is at least 1000 TCID50 and likely to be as high or higher than the O1 Lausanne strain. The exposure of pairs of recipient pigs kept physically separated from donor pigs in a series of rooms to aerosol exposure doses of the O UKG 2001 strain of around 50 TCID50 per min for 24–48 h failed to infect any of eight pigs. Thus, the present experiment confirms our previous findings [1, 2] that pigs, compared to cattle and sheep, are relatively resistant to infection with airborne FMDV.

Between March 4 and 26, 1981 the French veterinary authorities reported a series of 14 outbreaks of disease due to type O foot-and-mouth (FMD) virus, 13 in Brittany and one in Normandy. The United Kingdom reported FMD type O in Jersey on March 19 and in the Isle of Wight on March 22. The field and laboratory investigations on the farm in the Isle of Wight are outlined. The way in which short and long range numerical models were used to forecast the airborne spread of FMD from Brittany to the UK and then to assess the risk of further airborne spread within the UK is described.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) can spread by a variety of mechanisms, including, under certain circumstances, by the wind. Simulation models have been developed to predict the risk of airborne spread of FMDV and have played an important part in decision making during emergencies. The minimal infectious dose of FMDV for different species by inhalation is an important determinant of airborne spread. Whereas the doses for cattle and sheep have been quantified, those for pigs are not known. The objective of the study was to obtain that data in order to enhance the capability of simulation models. Under experimental conditions, forty pigs were exposed individually to naturally generated aerosols of FMDV, strain O1 Lausanne. The results indicated that doses under 100 TCID50 failed to infect pigs but doses of approximately 300 TCID50 caused short-term sub-clinical infection. The calculations suggested that a dose of more than 800 TCID50 is required to cause infection and typical disease.