Almost every country, both developed and developing ones, faces stability problems and economic growth problems. One of the issues that receives special attention in each country is inflation. Inflation is seen as a crucial variable for potential economic conditions where sustainable economic growth is the main goal of every country. Unstable inflation can be influenced by macroeconomic variables, including interest rates, exchange rates, and output gaps. Observing how the determinants affect inflation, we hypothesize that interest rates and exchange rates have a negative and significant effect on inflation while the output gap has a positive and significant effect on inflation. To explore our goals, we use panel data consisting of ASEAN countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. The panel data analysis method allows us to study the dynamics of changes with time series by using the Fixed Effect Model. The data used in this study are secondary data for 2000-2019 obtained from the World Bank and Global Economic Data, Indicators, Charts & Forecasts. The results showed that the variables Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Output Gap together had a significant effect on inflation. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates have a negative and significant effect on Inflation in the five ASEAN countries. Meanwhile, the Output Gap has a positive and significant effect on inflation in the five ASEAN countries. Indonesia and the Philippines have the highest inflation estimates. Indonesia is the country with the highest inflation with an average inflation of 6.76%.The lowest inflation intercepts and estimates were in Singapore. The inflation rate over the past 20 years in Singapore has tended to fluctuate with an average of 1.53%.
Microfinance has become an important tool for poverty alleviation in many countries and the Indonesian government through various intervention programs to overcome poverty has also implemented microfinance programs in Indonesia, one of which is through the Kota Tanpa Kumuh (Kotaku) Program. This study aims to analyze the factors that affect the sustainability of the Financial Management Unit (UPK) Microfinance Institutions (MFI) operating in South Sumatra Province. The purpose of this study is to gain a better understanding of these factors and their sustainability so that they can provide recommendations to stakeholders at both the central and regional levels. The data collection method was used by surveying 50 samples of the UPK Community Self-Reliance Agency (BKM) spread across three cities, namely Palembang City, Prabumulih City and Lubuk linggau City which is the largest city there are UPK BKM microfinance institutions from 7 cities and districts intervened in the Province South Sumatra. The analytical method in this study uses logistic regression to analyze data using descriptive qualitative analysis to explain the factors that influence the sustainability of UPK BKM Microfinance Institutions (MFI) in South Sumatra Province. The results showed that the factors that had a significant effect on the level of sustainability of MFI were BKM support and portfolios at risk.
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