Assessments of the health effects of pollutants generally use models in which exposure variables and model parameters are point values, often chosen as conservative estimates. A more realistic approach is to characterize the uncertainty of each variable and parameter explicitly as a probability distribution. This paper presents a probabilistic version of an established model for metabolism of ingested uranium and characterizes the parameters of the model as distributions. It then characterizes the uncertainty of the threshold level for nephrotoxic risk of uranium, and uses distributions of the heterogeneity in drinking water intake of uranium in the U.S. to assess nephrotoxic risk. It further evaluates the implications of inadequate data on the heterogeneity of dietary intake.
It is usually assumed that there is a linear relationship between C and Q and that the -" concentration factor is independent of the concentration in the environment. This assumption, along with the assumption that groups of similar organisms have similar concentration factors for a specific radionuclide, allow the use of generic .concentration factors in dose assessment models. These assumptions may not alway_
This paper reports on a probabilistic risk assessment of estimated incremental individual lifetime fatal cancer risks to recreational fishermen from radium in produced water discharged by offshore oil production platforms. A direct approach used limited measurements of radium concentrations in fishes caught near three shallow offshore platforms. A predictive modeling approach estimated the range of radium concentrahons in fishes caught near deeper platforms. Estimated risks were described as probability distributions. Median predicted risks associated with shallow offshore platforms, representing worst-case conditions, were always less than 1 x 10-5. Median risks for platforms in deeper water were always less than 3 x 10-7.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.