In 2004, the European Union (EU) implemented a pet movement policy (referred to here as the EUPMP) under EU regulation 998/2003. The United Kingdom (UK) was granted a temporary derogation from the policy until December 2011 and instead has in place its own Pet Movement Policy (Pet Travel Scheme (PETS)). A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was developed to estimate the risk of rabies introduction to the UK under both schemes to quantify any change in the risk of rabies introduction should the UK harmonize with the EU policy. Assuming 100 % compliance with the regulations, moving to the EUPMP was predicted to increase the annual risk of rabies introduction to the UK by approximately 60-fold, from 7.79 × 10(-5) (5.90 × 10(-5), 1.06 × 10(-4)) under the current scheme to 4.79 × 10(-3) (4.05 × 10(-3), 5.65 × 10(-3)) under the EUPMP. This corresponds to a decrease from 13,272 (9,408, 16,940) to 211 (177, 247) years between rabies introductions. The risks associated with both the schemes were predicted to increase when less than 100 % compliance was assumed, with the current scheme of PETS and quarantine being shown to be particularly sensitive to noncompliance. The results of this risk assessment, along with other evidence, formed a scientific evidence base to inform policy decision with respect to companion animal movement.

Campylobacter is a common cause of intestinal disease in humans and is often linked to the consumption of contaminated poultry meat. Despite considerable research on the topic there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with Campylobacter epidemiology. A Bayesian model framework was applied to multiple longitudinal datasets on Campylobacter infection in UK broiler flocks to estimate the time at which each flock was first infected with Campylobacter. The model results suggest that the day of first infection ranges from 10 to 45 days; however, over half had a time of infection between 30 and 35 days. When considering only those flocks which were thinned, 48% had an estimated day of infection within 2 days of the day of thinning, thus suggesting an association between thinning and Campylobacter infection. These results demonstrate how knowledge of the time of infection can be correlated to known events to identify potential risk factors for infection.

BackgroundBovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a zoonotic disease of cattle caused by Mycobacterium bovis, widespread in England and Wales. It has high incidence towards the South West of England and Wales, with much lower incidence to the East and North. A stochastic simulation model was developed to simulate M. bovis transmission among cattle, transfer by cattle movements and transmission from environmental reservoirs (often wildlife and especially badgers). It distinguishes five surveillance streams, including herd tests, pre-movement testing and slaughter surveillance. The model thereby simulates interventions in bTB surveillance and control, and generates outputs directly comparable to detailed disease records. An anonymized version of the executable model with its input data has been released. The model was fitted to cattle bTB records for 2008–2010 in a cross-sectional comparison, and its projection was compared with records from 2010 to 2016 for validation.ResultsThe fitted model explained over 99% of the variation among numbers of breakdowns in four defined regions and surveillance streams in 2010. It classified 7800 (95% confidence interval c. 5500 – 14,000) holdings within high incidence regions as exposed to infectious environmental reservoirs, out of over 31,000 cattle holdings identified as potentially exposed to such sources. The model was consistent with previous estimates of low M. bovis transmission rate among cattle, but cattle to cattle transmission was clearly required to generate the number of cattle cases observed. When projected to 2016, the model as fitted to 2010 continued to match the distribution of bTB among counties, although it was notable that the actual distribution of bTB in 2010 was itself a close match for its distribution in 2016.ConclusionsThe close model fit demonstrated that cattle movements could generate breakdowns as observed in low incidence regions, if persistent environmental reservoirs such as wildlife maintained infection levels in the high incidence regions. The model suggests that environmental reservoirs may be a challenge for control, because, although many holdings are exposed to infection from wildlife or the environment, they are a minority of holdings. Large impacts on disease in wildlife will be required to avoid each individual transmission event to cattle.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12917-018-1595-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Aims: To estimate qualitatively the probabilities of release (or entry) of Eurasian lineage H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus into Great Britain (GB), the Netherlands and Italy through selected higher risk species of migratory water bird. Methods and Results: The probabilities of one or more release events of H5N1 HPAI per year (P release ) were estimated qualitatively for 15 avian species, including swans, geese, ducks and gulls, by assessing the prevalence of H5N1 HPAI in different regions of the world (weighted to 2009) and estimates of the total numbers of birds migrating from each of those regions. The release assessment accommodated the migration times for each species in relation to the probabilities of their surviving infection and shedding virus on arrival. Although the predicted probabilities of release of H5N1 per individual bird per year were low, very low or negligible, P release was high for a few species reflecting the high numbers of birds migrating from some regions. Values of P release were generally higher for the Netherlands than for GB, while ducks and gulls from Africa presented higher probabilities to Italy compared to the Netherlands and GB. Conclusions: Bird species with high values of P release in GB, the Netherlands and Italy generally originate from within Europe based on data for global prevalence of H5N1 between 2003 and 2009 weighted to 2009. Potential longdistance transfer of H5N1 HPAI from North Asia and Eurasia to GB, the Netherlands and Italy is limited to a few species and does not occur from South-East Asia, an area where H5N1 is endemic. Significance and Impact of the Study: The approach accommodates biogeographical conditions and variability in the estimated worldwide prevalence of the virus. The outputs of this release assessment can be used to inform surveillance activities through focusing on certain species and migratory pathways.

Opening ParagraphIn a predominantly agricultural society, the family unit has remained a fundamental element underlying economic organi2ation among the Hausa. There is, however, surprisingly little reference in the literature to the organization of this unit since it was described by Greenberg (1946; 1947) for pagan Hausa, and by Smith (1955) for Moslems. This paper discusses those aspects of the family structure which are directly related to the organization of rural production. In particular it is concerned with the family farming unit which may be defined as those members of a kinship group who combine their farming operations under a common leadership and organization, to form the basis for a common unit of domestic economy.