We aimed to determine the conservation status of medium- and large-sized mammals and evaluate the impact of 500 years of forest fragmentation on this group of animals in the Pernambuco Endemism Center, in the biogeographical zone of the Atlantic forest north of the São Francisco River in northeastern Brazil. Line transect surveys were performed in 21 forest fragments, resulting in a checklist of the mammals of the entire Pernambuco Endemism Center area. We ran a generalized linear model (Factorial ANCOVA) to analyze to what extent the vegetation type, fragment area, isolation, sampling effort (as total kilometers walked), or higher-order interactions predicted (a) richness and (b) sighting rates. To determine if the distribution of the species within the forest fragments exhibited a nested pattern, we used the NODF metric. Subsequently, we performed a Binomial Logistic Regression to predict the probability of encountering each species according to fragment size. Out of 38 medium- and large-sized mammal species formerly occurring in the study area, only 53.8% (n = 21) were sighted. No fragment hosted the entire remaining mammal community, and only four species (19%) occurred in very small fragments (73.3% of the remaining forest fragments, with a mean size of 2.8 ha). The mammalian community was highly simplified, with all large mammals being regionally extinct. Neither the species richness nor sighting rate was controlled by the vegetation type, the area of the forest fragments, isolation or any higher-order interaction. Although a highly significant nested subset pattern was detected, it was not related to the ranking of the area of forest fragments or isolation. The probability of the occurrence of a mammal species in a given forest patch varied unpredictably, and the probability of detecting larger species was even observed to decrease with increasing patch size. In an ongoing process of mass extinction, half of the studied mammals have gone extinct. The remaining medium-sized mammal community is highly simplified and homogenized. The persistence of these species in a forest patch is determined by their ability to adapt to a novel simplified diet, the efficient use of the surrounding matrix without being engulfed by the sink effect, and escaping hunting. Our results suggest that the 21st century medium-sized mammalian fauna of this region will comprise only four species unless strict conservation measures are implemented immediately and every forest fragment is effectively protected.
Reconsidering mammal extinctions in the Pernambuco Endemism Center of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: a critique. This is a reply to the critique made by Garbino et al. (2018) to our article (Mendes Pontes et al., 2016) in which we revealed an unprecedented mass extinction event in the Pernambuco Endemism Center (CEPE) and with which they disagreed. Here we critically review their arguments, and present incontrovertible evidence that the processes presented in our 2016 paper are real events. Additionally, we discuss the importance of providing up-to-date scientific data to prove the existence of a species, and the critical importance of historical records in formulating a better understanding of the mammalian diversity of the CEPE. We point out that a more rigorous approach towards historical and recent records is needed when producing checklists of CEPE mammals, given that ignoring evidence and allowing personal opinion to prevail may lead to loss of credibility and jeopardize conservation efforts. Key words: Mass extinction, Pernambuco Endemism Center, Atlantic forest of northeastern Brazil, Mediumsized and large mammals, Conservation Resumen Reconsiderando las extinciones de mamíferos en el Centro de Endemismo de Pernambuco del bosque atlántico del Brasil: una crítica. Presentamos la respuesta a la crítica formulada por Garbino et al. (2018) a nuestro artículo (Mendes Pontes et al., 2016), en el que revelamos una extinción en masa en el Centro de Endemismo de Pernambuco (CEPE), de la que discreparon. En este artículo examinamos sus argumentos de forma crítica y exponemos pruebas irrefutables de que los procesos presentados en nuestro artículos de 2016 son acontecimientos reales. Asimismo, analizamos la importancia de aportar datos científicos actualizados para demostrar la existencia de una especie y la trascendencia de mantener registros históricos para comprender mejor la diversidad de mamíferos del CEPE. Señalamos la necesidad de abordar de una manera más rigurosa los registros históricos y recientes a la hora de confeccionar listas de comprobación de los mamíferos del CEPE, ya que pasar por alto las pruebas y dejar que prevalga la opinión personal puede conllevar una pérdida de credibilidad y poner en peligro las iniciativas de conservación.Palabras clave: Extinción en masa, Centro de Endemismo de Pernambuco, Bosque atlántico del nordeste del Brasil, Mamíferos de talla mediana y grande, Conservación
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