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Deltas are globally important locations of diverse ecosystems, human settlement and economic activity that are threatened by reductions in sediment delivery, accelerated sea level rise, and subsidence. Here we investigated the relative contribution of river flooding, hurricanes and cold fronts on elevation change in the prograding Wax Lake Delta (WLD). Sediment surface elevation was measured across 87 plots, eight times from February 2008 to August 2011. The high peak discharge river floods in 2008 and 2011 resulted in the greatest mean net elevation gain of 5.4 to 4.9 cm over each flood season, respectively. The highest deltaic wetland sediment retention (16.3% of total sediment discharge) occurred during the 2008 river flood despite lower total and peak discharge compared to 2011. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike resulted in a total net elevation gain of 1.2 cm, but the long-term contribution of hurricane derived sediments to deltaic wetlands was estimated to be just 22% of the long-term contribution of large river floods. Winter cold front passage resulted in a net loss in elevation that is equal to the elevation gain from lower discharge river floods and was consistent across years. This amount of annual loss in elevation from cold fronts could effectively negate the long-term land building capacity within the delta without the added elevation gain from both high and low discharge river floods. The current lack of inclusion of cold front elevation loss in most predictive numerical models likely overestimates the land building capacity in areas that experience similar forcings to WLD.

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[1] We explore the role of plant matter accumulation in the sediment column in determining the response of fluvial-deltas to base-level rise and simple subsidence profiles. Making the assumption that delta building processes operate to preserve the geometry of the delta plain, we model organic sedimentation in terms of the plant matter accumulation and accommodation (space made for sediment deposition) rates. A spatial integration of the organic sedimentation, added to the known river sediment input, leads to a model of delta evolution that estimates the fraction of organic sediments preserved in the delta. The model predicts that the maximum organic fraction occurs when the organic matter accumulation rate matches the accommodation rate, a result consistent with field observations. The model also recovers the upper limit for coal accumulation previously reported in the coal literature. Further, when the model is extended to account for differences in plant matter accumulation between fresh and saline environments (i.e., methanogenesis versus sulfate reduction) we show that an abrupt shift in the location of the fresh-salt boundary can amplify the speed of shoreline retreat.

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