In this work, we compare the values of 15 convective indices obtained from radiosonde and microwave temperature and water vapor profiles simultaneously measured over Nizhny Novgorod (56.2°N, 44°E) during 5 convective seasons of 2014–2018. A good or moderate correlation (with coefficients of ~0.7–0.85) is found for most indices. We assess the thunderstorm prediction skills with a lead time of 12 h for each radiosonde and microwave index. It is revealed that the effectiveness of thunderstorm prediction by microwave indices is much better than by radiosonde ones. Moreover, a good correlation between radiosonde and microwave values of a certain index does not necessarily correspond to similar prediction skills. Eight indices (Showalter Index, Maximum Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), Total Totals index, TQ index, Jefferson Index, S index, K index, and Thompson index) are regarded to be the best predictors from both the true skill statistics (TSS) maximum and Heidke skill score (HSS) maximum points of view. In the case of radiosonde data, the best indices are the Jefferson Index, K index, S index, and Thompson index. Only TSS and HSS maxima for these indices are close to the microwave ones, whereas the prediction skills of other radiosonde indices are essentially worse than in the case of microwave data. The analysis suggests that the main possible reason of this discrepancy is an unexpectedly low quality of radiosonde data.
Ground-based microwave radiometers are increasingly used in operational meteorology and nowcasting. These instruments continuously measure the spectra of downwelling atmospheric radiation in the range 20–60 GHz used for the retrieval of tropospheric temperature and water vapor profiles. Spectroscopic uncertainty is an important part of the retrieval error budget, as it leads to systematic bias. In this study, we analyze the difference between observed and simulated microwave spectra obtained from more than four years of microwave and radiosonde observations over Nizhny Novgorod (56.2° N, 44° E). We focus on zenith-measured and elevation-scanning data in clear-sky conditions. The simulated spectra are calculated by a radiative transfer model with the use of radiosonde profiles and different absorption models, corresponding to the latest spectroscopy research. In the case of zenith-measurements, we found a systematic bias (up to ~2 K) of simulated spectra at 51–54 GHz. The sign of bias depends on the absorption model. A thorough investigation of the error budget points to a spectroscopic nature of the observed differences. The dependence of the results on the elevation angle and absorption model can be explained by the basic properties of radiative transfer and by cloud contamination at elevation angles.
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