地上気温上昇に伴って観測された都市域極端降雨の増加：ジャカルタの事例

Abstract

Sub-daily extreme precipitation in Jakarta exhibits trends related to local temperature, seasonal tropical monsoon circulations, and other environmental drivers. Analysis of 81 years of hourly rainfall between 1900-2010 shows a significant increase of about doubling the number of short-duration rainfall events in the wet season. In recent decades, rainfall is found to be higher in intensity and shorter in duration relative to preceding decades. These short-duration rain showers develop typically between afternoon and late night or during early morning hours. Changing short-duration rainfall characteristics throughout the last century are partly attributed to changes in the surface environment of urban Jakarta. A recent temperature increase and land surface drying in the city, in combination with a small increase of the atmospheric moisture content, promote intensified atmospheric convection. A combination of rain gauge data with upper-air observations collected during 2002-2016 reveals that surface warming in the urbanized city accompanied by enhanced availability of moisture results in an increase of convective available potential energy (CAPE), which contributes to enhanced intense precipitation. Super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling (CC) of high-intensity rainfall is attributed to high near-surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content in the morning.This super CC scaling is present in a relatively small range of surface temperature values. Results of this study are in agreement with earlier findings exploring the intensification of extreme morning precipitation and a temporal shift of the diurnal convective maximum from late afternoon to late night/early morning in response to local warming. For a delta city such as Jakarta with abundant convection and heavy precipitation, a well-maintained rainfall database is crucial to assist urban flood early warning.

Changing Urban Temperature and Rainfall Patterns in Jakarta: A Comprehensive Historical Analysis

“…An increase in urban temperature can affect rainfall intensity through the complex process of land-atmosphere interaction influenced by LULC change and urbanization. The results show consistency with previous research on the relationship between an increasing urban temperature and extreme rainfall intensity in Jakarta [57]. Siswanto et al (2022) [57] observed an increase in urban temperature with an increase in the atmospheric moisture content with an increase in extreme rainfall intensity in Jakarta between 1900 and 2010.…”

“…The increasing urban temperature in Jakarta is associated with extreme rainfall [56][57][58]. Tsiringakis et al (2017) [56] studied urban flooding in Jakarta.…”

“…The aforementioned studies indicate that as built-up areas increase and green spaces decrease, it can lead to a combination of hazards, including rising urban temperatures and intensified rainfall, ultimately resulting in flooding [34,37,53,[56][57][58]. Some studies are devoted to discussing these relationships in Jakarta, with a predominant focus on flooding events post 2013.…”

Evaluation of Flood Hazard Potency in Jakarta based on Multi-criteria Analysis

“…This is because the North Jakarta area is directly adjacent to Jakarta Bay so the water vapor availability is abundant. This causes the total water column to be high so that the frequency of rain also increases (Siswanto et al, 2022). Therefore, the North Jakarta and Central Jakarta areas have a high hazard class for experiencing flooding.…”

Seasonal sea breeze variation analysis based on multi‐year near‐surface observations in Jakarta, Indonesia

“…Our findings will provide a foundation for future studies on interactions between the sea breeze and climate change and/or urbanization in Jakarta. Microclimate changes observed in Jakarta (Siswanto et al, 2022) may also influence the sea breeze (Darmanto et al, 2019); therefore, knowledge about seasonal sea breeze variation will be important for isolating the effects of climate change and urbanization, thus improving the accuracy of future analyses.…”