Алгоритм Підвищення Точності Прогнозування Процесу Виникнення Надзвичайних Ситуацій На Основі Регресійних Моделей

Іванець, Г. В.; Ivanets, Mykhailo

doi:10.30748/nitps.2019.34.16

Cited by 1 publication

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“…The polynomial coefficients are calculated based on the weighted least squares method [15]. The predicted number of emergencies in the i-th region of the state in accordance with the model ( 1) is calculated based on the predicted number of emergencies in the country n E pr as a whole and the probability of emergencies in the region of the state P E i as follows:…”

Section: Development Of An Organizational and Technical Methods For Predicting Emergency Situations And Damage Caused As Their Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of organizational and technical methods for predicting emergency situations and possible losses as their results

et al. 2021

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Emergency prevention is based on analysis, forecasting and early response to emergencies. A systematic approach to solving the problem of preventing emergencies envisages forecasting emergencies by type, level and possible losses caused as a their results both in the state as a whole and in its regions. To implement a systematic approach based on a formalized mathematical model, an organizational and technical method has been developed for predicting emergencies and possible losses caused as their results. The method is a combination of a variable order polynomial regression method, a weighted least squares method, and a probabilistic statistical method. This allows to compensate for the shortcomings of some at the expense of others, which will lead to an increase in forecasting accuracy. A control algorithm has been developed for the implementation of an organizational and technical method for predicting emergency situations and possible losses caused as their results. Its use involves the implementation of a number of interrelated procedures. At the first stage, the collection, processing and analysis of information on emergency situations in the country for a certain period of monitoring is carried out. This is the basis for predicting the processes of emergencies in general, in nature, level and types, as well as losses due to them both in the state and its regions. The information received is taken into account when forming a decision on the actions of civil protection units in order to adequately respond to emergency situations and eliminate their consequences. Based on the analysis of the effectiveness of the actions of the response units, the decisions on the elimination of emergency situations are adjusted. The developed method makes it possible to reasonably approach the planning and implementation of organizational and technical measures to prevent emergency situations, taking into account the potential threats to the territories and population of the country's regions

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Section: Development Of An Organizational and Technical Methods For Predicting Emergency Situations And Damage Caused As Their Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of organizational and technical methods for predicting emergency situations and possible losses as their results

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Алгоритм Підвищення Точності Прогнозування Процесу Виникнення Надзвичайних Ситуацій На Основі Регресійних Моделей

Cited by 1 publication

References 2 publications

Development of organizational and technical methods for predicting emergency situations and possible losses as their results

Development of organizational and technical methods for predicting emergency situations and possible losses as their results

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