Zum Einfluss der Bundespolitik auf Landtagswahlen: theoretischer Rahmen und Analysemodelle

The Nexus between National Party Preferences and State Elections – A Long-Term Perspective

“…But 86 GERMAN POLITICS results on the influences of national vs. state factors on state elections are mixed and show that national factors are not dominant when it comes to state elections. 6 Hence, regressing state election results on the cycle of the national government's popularity can only highlight part of this complex relation. Recent research also shows that regional factors became more important after reunification in Germany, which reduces the strength of the relation of time between state and federal election and state election results after 1990.…”

“…The prevailing view thus is that national politics, especially the standing of the national governing parties, has a major influence on the results of state elections and political science research is able to show this effect empirically. 2 However, two perspectives on the nexus between national party preferences and state election results have so far received less interest from scholarly research: first, whereas the effect of long-term trends (i.e. the trend in the national government's popularity between the last federal and the current state election) on state election results could already be shown, it remains unclear if short-term changes in the national government's popularity (i.e.…”

Looking for Mr. Right? A Comparative Analysis of Parties’ ‘Coalition Statements’ prior to the Federal Elections of 2005 and 2009

“…If party identification is interpreted as mainly directed to the national level or equally directed to the national and the regional level, regional factors only prevail in Bavaria and Saxony. 40 Additionally, the problem does not rely exclusively on voters' capability of differentiating national and regional level. If voters were to accept a regionally different approach to coalition politics, they would also have to abandon the widely held belief that the leaders of the federal party were able to dictate to their regional associations which coalitions to enter and which to avoid.…”