Zimbabwe’s Trade Performance Under Alternative Trade Policy Regimes

Abstract

This study examines Zimbabwe’s export and import performance under alternative trade policy regimes, from 1976 to 2014. Taking into account export and import volumes, gross domestic product (GDP), price of exports and imports, foreign income, real effective exchange rate and policy changes, log-linear errorcorrection models were adopted to estimate export supply and import demand elasticities. The study concludes that the relationship of exports and imports to GDP is significantly positive, while foreign income has no significant effect. A devaluation is estimated to have a significantly negative effect on imports in the short-term. Though highly inelastic, the effect of prices of imports on import demand is estimated to be significantly negative in the short- and long-term, and that of exports on export supply is positively significant in the short-term. The adoption of outward-oriented strategies was estimated to result in a 13.86 per cent increase in exports in the long-term, and a 32.3 per cent increase in imports in the short-term between 1990 and 1995 alone, and an additional 33.62 per cent between 1996 and 2000. The analysis also reveals that adopting a multi-foreign currency regime will only significantly influence export supply in the long-term.

South Africa’s Trade Performance under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes

“…Ceteris paribus, given a 1% increase in GDP, imports increase by 0.049% in the short run and 0.132% in the long-term. This result is consistent with previous studies by Warner and Kreinin (1983), Aydin et al (2004), Aziz (2013), Nyatanga (2017), amongst others, who found that an increase in a country's real income level leads to increased export and import volumes.…”

“…Relative price of exports = Export price index/ domestic prices Positive effect on export supply (Khan, 1974;Warner and Kreinin, 1983;Aziz, 2013;Nyatanga, 2017).…”

Model Permintaan Ekspor Udang Olahan Indonesia Oleh Pasar Jepang, Amerika Serikat Dan Uni Eropa Pendekatan Error Correction Model (Ecm)

“…Model ECM pertama kali diperkenalkan oleh Sargan dan kemudian dikembangkan oleh Hendry dan juga Engle-Granger (Granger & Newbold, 1974). Model ECM memiliki beberapa kegunaan dalam mengatasi masalah data time series yang tidak stasioner dan masalah regresi lancung (spurious) (Nyatanga, 2017).…”

“…Pendekatan ini muncul sejak para ahli ekonometrika memba masalah time series. Model ECM pertama kali diperkenalkan ole dikembangkan oleh Hendry dan juga Engle-Granger (Granger & ECM memiliki beberapa kegunaan dalam mengatasi masalah dat stasioner dan masalah regresi lancung (spurious) (Nyatanga, 2017).…”

Is There Any Potential in Service Trade of South Asia?

“…This has resulted in the rapid growth in the services sector of the region, particularly in India where the contribution of services to overall growth has been significant and which has attracted substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) into the sector (IBEF, 2017). Despite the structural changes in South Asian economies over the past decade, the region has remained inward-looking (Nyatanga, 2017). In particular, trade among South Asian countries has remained much below potential, partly because of tariff and non-tariff barriers (Kaur & Nanda, 2010).…”