2024
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-59976-7
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Zika emergence, persistence, and transmission rate in Colombia: a nationwide application of a space-time Markov switching model

Laís Picinini Freitas,
Dirk Douwes-Schultz,
Alexandra M. Schmidt
et al.

Abstract: Zika, a viral disease transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes, emerged in the Americas in 2015, causing large-scale epidemics. Colombia alone reported over 72,000 Zika cases between 2015 and 2016. Using national surveillance data from 1121 municipalities over 70 weeks, we identified sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with Zika’s emergence, re-emergence, persistence, and transmission intensity in Colombia. We fitted a zero-state Markov-switching model under the Bayesian framework, assuming … Show more

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