Youth International Experience Is a Limited Predictor of Senior Success in Football: The Relationship Between U17, U19, and U21 Experience and Senior Elite Participation Across Nations and Playing Positions

Abstract

Athlete participation in youth international competitions is often regarded as crucial to the attainment of future success. However, the link between participation and performance in sports at youth levels and senior levels is unclear at best. To understand this relationship better we conducted two studies of male football players. In Study 1, we examined adult performance at the upper levels of football using a factor analysis and identified the characteristics that define what we termed a “Super Elite” level, which is the highest level of participation. This outcome measure was used in Study 2 to explore further the link between youth international experience and athletes' Super Elite experience. Overall, our results indicated that youth international experience is a limited predictor of participation at the Super Elite level of football. Participation at the U21 level was the strongest, most consistent predictor of Super Elite level participation. U17 participation was found to be either an insignificant or a negative predictor of subsequent participation in international football. The effect of U19 participation on later participation was partly significant, but weaker than the effect of U21 participation, and depended on the national context and the playing positions of the athletes. When looking at the effect of different youth career types, careers involving U21 international experience were the strongest predictors of later careers as Super Elite athletes. National governing bodies that want to ensure success in talent identification and development should therefore consider focusing fewer resources on youth international competitions in age categories before adulthood. A total of 1,482 players who had national football team experience at either the U17, U19, U21, or senior levels were included in our studies.

Youth-to-senior transition in women’s and girls’ football: Towards a better understanding of relative age effects and gender-specific considerations

“…Studies on male players have showed that practice experience gained from youth international teams is a limited predictor of senior success [ 12 , 13 ]. Indeed, professional academies show a high turnover of youth players [ 15 ], mainly caused by repeated procedures of selection and de-selection throughout childhood, adolescence, and early adulthood [ 9 ].…”

Junior to senior transition pathway in Italian Football: The rocky road to the top is not determined by youth national team’s selections

“…Despite more players joining the junior compared to the senior teams, 9–15% of the junior-to-senior transition rate may not represent a good return on investment. Overall, the present findings suggest that youth experience is a limited predictor of senior success [ 12 , 14 – 16 ] and indicate a high turnover in national youth teams’ rosters [ 18 ]. The combination of the prospective and retrospective analysis showed that the selection strategies adopted at the youth level were linked to the determination of the players’ pool of the senior national teams only from the U19’s selection onwards.…”

“…A study on different European countries, including Scandinavian nations (i.e., Denmark, Norway, and Sweden), Belgium, Germany, and Portugal, highlighted that being included in Under 17 (U17) national selection negatively predicted subsequent participation in international football competitions. Also, the relationship between Under 19 (U19) selection and senior international participation was weak and increased with the selection at the Under 21 (U21) level [ 16 ]. Successful transition from youth-to-senior in football can also be measured by the ability of a player to obtain a professional contract in adulthood.…”

The Impact of Injury on Career Progression in Elite Youth Football—Findings at 10 Years

“…Factors such as performance level, consistency of performance, rate of performance improvement, long-term participation in a youth national team, and resilience to physical and psychological stress have been described in the literature [38,39]. Career progression also appears to be influenced by the relative age effect [40,41]. The relative age effect is the phenomenon that athletes born in the first half of the selection year are overrepresented in professional sports.…”