Youth bulges, insurrections and labor-market restrictions

Apolte, Thomas; Gerling, Lena

doi:10.1007/s11127-018-0514-8

Cited by 12 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Our paper is also related to the body of political science literature exploring the socio-political repercussions of sizable young cohorts. This literature primarily delves into the consequences of youth bulges on civil conflicts (Flückiger and Ludwig, 2018;Apolte and Gerling, 2018), social unrest, violent protests, and political instability (Goldstone, 2002(Goldstone, , 2016Urdal, 2006;Weber, 2013;Farzanegan and Witthuhn, 2017;Weber, 2021). Consistent with these studies, we observe a positive impact of the "youth bulge" on low-intensity conflicts such as riots.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 76%

“…Isolating the ratio of young males. The exiting literature on the youth bulge particularly emphasises the role played by young males arguing that they are over-represented in revolutionary movements and conflicts (Goldstone, 2002;Urdal, 2006;Apolte and Gerling, 2018;Weber, 2021). In Table 26 (Appendix D) we verify that our results hold when we consider the ratio of young males (instead of the overall youth ratio) as our main explanatory variable.…”

Section: Alternative Demographic Variablessupporting

confidence: 63%

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Demographic and Political Transitions.

Chaba,

Dorsch,

Hiller

et al. 2024

Preprint

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This paper revisits the political economy of transitions to democracy. We build on a canonical rational choice model of democratization by introducing demography, arguing that the demographic structure of a society shapes the material incentives for a democratic movement. A population’s youth cohort can benefit from democratic improvements over a longer time horizon and may have a lower opportunity cost of participatingin democratic movements than older cohorts. Hence, a rise in the population’s proportion of youth during the demographic transition opens a democratic “windowof opportunity” as the heightened incentives for a democratic movement might prompt an autocratic elite to concede more democracy. We test this prediction on two long country-year panel data sets containing detailed demographic data. Fixed-effects panel regressions demonstrate that an increase in the youth ratio is robustly associated with democratic improvements.The effect is particularly pronounced for “youth bulges” measured as the proportion of the population between the ages of 15 and 19. Two distinct instrumental variable strategies, using (i) lagged fertility rates in neighboring countries and (ii) past climatic conditions, allow for a causal interpretation of this correlation. Furthermore, the positive impact of the youth ratio on democratic improvements is more pronounced during recessions suggesting that demographic and macro-economic cycles are complementary channels. Finally, we show that low intensity conflict, such as riots, might act as a transmission channel, facilitating thepositive impact of a high youth ratio on the probability of a democratic improvement.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 76%

Section: Alternative Demographic Variablessupporting

confidence: 63%

Demographic and Political Transitions.

Chaba,

Dorsch,

Hiller

et al. 2024

Preprint

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show abstract

“…Finally, we include the share of the population aged 14 to the total population. A higher percentage of the younger population is associated with more anti-state political violence (see, for example, Austin, 2011;Apolte and 2018). Consequently, governments that face a 'youth bulge' are forewarned and respond by being more repressive than other states (Nordås and Davenport, 2013).…”

Section: Data and Empirical Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Electoral repression cycles

Adam

2022

Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice

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This article examines whether there is an increase in repression in the election year in electoral autocracies. First, we build a simple theoretical model of an electoral autocracy. We assume that autocratic rulers want to maximise the expected rents from office. As a higher vote share in the election is translated into a higher probability of remaining in power, they use repression to exclude those opposing the ruler from the electoral body. Then, in the empirical section, we use a data set of autocracies to examine the existence of an electoral cycle in repression. We use a dynamic inverse probability weighting regression adjustment model, which models the dynamics of elections on the respect of human rights and considers that elections are non-random events. All results, and several robustness tests, indicate a strong presence of an electoral cycle in repression consistent with our theoretical model and priors. Additionally, we find that when it comes to autocracies, this cyclical increase in repression is more pronounced than the pre-electoral increase in government spending.

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“…Multiple studies have suggested that the failure of the labor market to absorb the growing proportions of youth is among the key factors which cause grievances among young people, leading to their involvement in conflict and violence (Apolte & Gerling, 2018; Flückiger & Ludwig, 2018; Goldstone et al, 2010). Korenman and Neumark (2000) argue that, there is a positive relationship between YCS and youth unemployment.…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Youth Cohort Size, Structural Socioeconomic Conditions, and Youth Protest Behavior in Democratic Societies (1995–2014)

Nkansah

2022

SAGE Open

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Conventional literature associates large youth cohort size (YCS) with increased risk of political violence in countries with such demographic profiles. Key questions which remain unanswered, however, are whether YCS is also associated with young people’s proclivities toward more peaceful forms of protests, and whether structural socioeconomic conditions influence such a relationship? Using multilevel binary logistic regression techniques on pooled individual level data for 51 democratic countries purposively sampled from World Values Survey Waves 3 to 6, and country level data from World Bank, and UN Population Division, I show that YCS demonstrates a positive relationship with young people’s participation in peaceful demonstrations. This relationship is, however, moderated by structural factors such as education and unemployment, which end up reducing young people’s likelihood of participation. I argue that resource limitation, as predicted by the Civic Voluntarism Model, better explains the relationship between YCS and individual youth protest behavior in democratic societies, more than socioeconomic grievance, as suggested by grievance theory. An important implication of this finding is that participation in elite-challenging behaviors such as peaceful protests, can be expected to be more common among young people in affluent democratic societies, than their peers elsewhere in the democratic world.

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Youth bulges, insurrections and labor-market restrictions

Cited by 12 publications

References 53 publications

Demographic and Political Transitions.

Demographic and Political Transitions.

Electoral repression cycles

Youth Cohort Size, Structural Socioeconomic Conditions, and Youth Protest Behavior in Democratic Societies (1995–2014)

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