“Your Honor” is a Female: A Multistage Electoral Analysis of Women's Successes at Securing State Trial Court Judgeships*

Abstract

Objectives. Using a multistage gender-focused analysis of candidates for trial court judgeships, we seek answers to these leading questions: (1) Are women as strategic as men in choosing the conditions under which they run for an open seat or against an incumbent and against a male opponent or against another female? (2) Are women winning at the same rates as men under the same conditions at the primary election stage and at the runoff stage? (3) Are women as likely as men to move into a vacant trial court judgeship via a gubernatorial appointment? (4) Are women more likely to be appointed than to win election to the bench? Methods. This research represents the first use of an "all-stage" analysis of the relative success of female versus male candidates for trial court judge in nonpartisan settings. The three stages analyzed are (1) candidacy, (2) the initial primary round (outright victory or progression to the runoff ), and (3) the end stage-victory in a runoff, if necessary. The study is based on longitudinal data from Florida and Georgia-two of the nation's 10 largest states, each with higher contestation rates than the national average for nonpartisan trial court judicial racesand gubernatorial appointments to new or vacant judgeships. Results. Women behave strategically, more often seeking open seats than challenging incumbents and more often competing against men than women. Women participated in the candidate pools for most seats having contested primaries and when women run, they win more often than they lose, usually by defeating men. While women fare less well in runoffs than initial primaries, they win more runoffs than they lose. Women more often come to the bench by winning an election than securing a gubernatorial appointment, with female appointees disproportionately serving in newly created judgeships. Conclusions. Women frequently compete for trial court judgeships and when they run, they usually succeed. Open seats rather than challenging incumbents

Do Voters Prefer Women Judges? Deconstructing the Competitive Advantage in State Supreme Court Elections

“…We initially anticipated that women would enjoy an electoral advantage in state supreme court elections as a result of voter preferences favoring women over men in these races. Contrary to some prior work (Bullock et al 2014; Frederick and Streb 2008; Vining and Wilhelm 2011), our analyses showed no evidence of this kind of electoral advantage. However, we did find evidence that, when challenging incumbents, women fare better as challengers than men do.…”

“…Alternatively, it is possible that women do better in these elections as a result of the strategic considerations that come with women’s higher levels of election aversion. This seems to be the main finding of Bullock et al (2014), who find that women trial court candidates behave more strategically than similarly situated men. Women may be strategic when running for office, choosing to run in situations where they can maximize their chances of success.…”

“…In state supreme court elections, Vining and Wilhelm (2011) find a similar advantage for women in the Governor's party in elections from 1999 to 2008, although they decline to speculate about the reasons. Given the findings of recent studies (Bullock et al 2014;Frederick and Streb 2008;Vining and Wilhelm 2011), we expect to find that women do at least as well as men in these elections, and possibly better.…”

“…Few studies have investigated how women perform in judicial elections. There is some evidence to support the claim that women tend to do especially well in some judicial races—particularly in the lower courts, where voters are less likely to have information about the ideological standpoint of the judges and are more likely to rely on ballot cues (Bullock et al 2014; Frederick and Streb 2008; Streb and Frederick 2008). Gender may provide such a cue, and voters may use gender as a proxy for the ideology of a candidate (McDermott 1998).…”

“…A few studies that use data from the 2000s and beyond seem to find evidence of an electoral advantage that accrues to women candidates for judicial office. Women running for trial court judgeships in two nonpartisan states seem to have a competitive advantage over men at all stages of the electoral process (Bullock et al 2014). In the intermediate appellate courts, Frederick and Streb (2008) find evidence of an electoral advantage for incumbent women.…”