Young adult predictors of alcohol dependence to age 53: a 44‐year prospective cohort study of Danish men

Abstract

Aims To examine if (1) there is a positive association between drinking volume in young men and life‐time risk of alcohol dependence (AD) and (2) there are other associations between young adulthood factors and life‐time risk of AD. Design Prospective cohort study of sons of fathers with alcohol use disorder (AUD) and matched low‐risk controls without paternal AUD. Setting and participants A total of 204 men, who were assessed at baseline in 1979 at age 19–20 years, were followed through record linkage with Danish registers and consecutive psychiatric interviews at the ages of 33, 43 and 53 years. Measurements AD diagnoses were interview‐based according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 3rd edition, or made by treating clinicians according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) revision 8 (ICD‐8) until 1993 and revision 10 (ICD‐10) from 1994.We estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the development of AD after adjustment for confounders including smoking, social status and paternal AUD. Findings The following variables from the examination at age 19–20 independently predicted life‐time AD: alcohol consumption > 21 beverages/week versus 0–21 [odds ratio (OR) = 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.22–4.97], police contact (OR = 2.60, 95% CI = 1.28–5.28) and institutionalization related to the individual (OR = 2.90, 95% CI = 1.39–6.02). Compared with < 1 beverages/week, the risk for AD did not increase significantly for drinking volume categories: 1–7, 8–14 or 15–21 beverages/week. Conclusion Independently of other risk factors in young adulthood, young Danish men's risk for life‐time alcohol dependence appears to be predicted by a drinking volume at age 19–20 years exceeding 21 beverages per week.

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“…The biggest overall impact on adulthood alcohol use had the alcohol use in early adulthood (8). Sorensen et al (2021) carried out a 44-year prospective cohort study to evaluate if there is a link between the amount of drinking or other young adulthood factors and the risk of developing alcohol dependence across the lifespan. Participants born between 1959 and 1961 who were aged 19-20 were initially assessed in 1979 and followed up using national registers until 2013.…”

Youth involvement in alcohol and drug prevention: A systematic review

“…Studies have shown that young adults go through a critical developmental phase where alcohol and other drug use tend to peak because many experiment with drugs and alcohol for the first time at this age (Arnett, 2005; Patrick, Terry‐McElrath, Kloska, & Schulenberg, 2016). This is indeed a key public health issue as such behaviour exposes young people to a number of psychological, social and health risks (EMCDDA, 2011; Sørensen et al, 2021; Whiteford et al, 2013).…”