Yield Prediction in Maize ( ) using Weather Parameters Zea Mays under Subtropical and Intermediate Regions of North-Western Himalayas

Abstract

For prediction of maize yield in the north western Himalayas two districts Jammu and Udhampur belonging to different agro climatic conditions i.e. subtropical and intermediate regions were selected. For running yield prediction model at F2 stage (Flowering) and F3 stage (Pre harvest) of maize crop long term weekly climatic data of Jammu and Udhampur districts from 1997 to 2021 (24 years) was collected from different departments related to Agriculture and Meteorology. For validation yield prediction model field experiments on maize crop were conducted during kharif season 2020 and 2021 at SKUAST-J main campus Chatha. Pre harvest yield prediction model for maize crop has been prepared by using this data. For prediction of maize yield at F2 and F3 stage the long-term data from 26 to 36 and 26 to 40 standard th th th th meteorological week (SMW) from 1997 to 2021 was used. Further composite weather variables were studied for developing yield forecast model. Simple and weighted weather indices have been prepared for individual weather variable and for their interaction with time. The yield forecast model were able to explain the variation in the grain yield of maize crop in subtropical Jammu region which was to the tune of 2.57 and -14.70 at F2 Stage and -3.00 and 9.70 during F3 stage where as in intermediate Udhampur district variation in F2 was 9.15 and 2.15 whereas during F3 stage -1.37 and 0.20 percent during 2020 and 2021.The predicted yield of maize crop for most of the stages are within kharif kharif acceptable error limit (+10 percent) in both the years of validation.