Yancheva et al. reply

Yancheva, Gergana; Nowaczyk, Norbert R; Mingram, Jens; Dulski, Peter; Schettler, Georg; Negendak, J. F. W.; Liu, Jiaqi; Sigman, Daniel M.; Peterson, Larry C.; Haug, Gerald H.

doi:10.1038/nature06339

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Thus, we expect precipitation to vary in concert with Indian Ocean SSTs (which govern the generation of moisture), as well as the strength of the winter Indian monsoon circulation (which affects the transport of moisture). Although the winter and summer monsoons are commonly thought to work in opposition to one another (29), global climate modeling experiments show that on orbital time scales, increases in Northern Hemisphere precession result in amplified seasonality that should intensify both the summer and winter monsoons (30,31). A more vigorous winter Indian monsoon, then, could explain the humid conditions that prevailed in the Tanganyika basin during the Early Holocene as well as during precession maxima in MIS 3.…”

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confidence: 99%

Northern Hemisphere Controls on Tropical Southeast African Climate During the Past 60,000 Years

Tierney

Russell

Huang

et al. 2008

Science

518

419

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The processes that control climate in the tropics are poorly understood. We applied compound-specific hydrogen isotopes (deltaD) and the TEX(86) (tetraether index of 86 carbon atoms) temperature proxy to sediment cores from Lake Tanganyika to independently reconstruct precipitation and temperature variations during the past 60,000 years. Tanganyika temperatures follow Northern Hemisphere insolation and indicate that warming in tropical southeast Africa during the last glacial termination began to increase approximately 3000 years before atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. deltaD data show that this region experienced abrupt changes in hydrology coeval with orbital and millennial-scale events recorded in Northern Hemisphere monsoonal climate records. This implies that precipitation in tropical southeast Africa is more strongly controlled by changes in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and the winter Indian monsoon than by migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Northern Hemisphere Controls on Tropical Southeast African Climate During the Past 60,000 Years

Tierney

Russell

Huang

et al. 2008

Science

518

419

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“…The role of climate change in the collapse of Tang Dynasty has been an issue among scholars. The argument is not over impact of climate change on social transitions, but on whether the drought period that existed was caused by a weaker summer monsoon during the late Tang Dynasty and whether the drought played a key role in the collapse of Tang Dynasty (Cheng et al, 2010;Yancheva et al, 2007aYancheva et al, , 2007bZhang, 2008;Zhang et al, 2008Zhang et al, , 2010aZhang et al, , 2010bZhang and Lu, 2007). Yancheva et al (2007a), based on the evidence from the sediment of Lake Huguang Maar, Guangdong Province, speculated that the collapse of the Tang Dynasty was accelerated by declining summer rainfall dating back to AD 700-900.…”

Section: The Role Of Climate Change In the Collapse Of Tang Dynastymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to the social and economic impacts, climate change is also regarded as an important factor that influences dynastic transitions (Ge et al, 2013b; Lee and Zhang, 2010; Zhang et al, 2011, 2015). There are many disagreements on the relationship between dynastic transitions in China and climate change, such as the role of climate change in the collapse of Tang Dynasty (Cheng et al, 2010; Yancheva et al, 2007a, 2007b; Zhang, 2008; Zhang et al, 2008, 2010a, 2010b; Zhang and Lu, 2007). The solutions to the conflict do not only lie on reducing the uncertainty in the meaning of the index of climate change but also depend on a more detailed study of the conjunction between climate change and dynastic fluctuations, which is to say the study of process and mechanism.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Correlation between climate and grain harvest fluctuations and the dynastic transitions and prosperity in China over the past two millennia

Yin

Fang

2016

The Holocene

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The social impacts of climate change constitute an important field within the study of global change. The impacts of historical climate change on dynastic transitions and prosperity in China from a food safety perspective is a helpful research topic that contributes to a better understanding of the impacts, process, and mechanism of climate change, as well as a reference for projecting the impacts of climate change in the future. This study defined the periods of dynastic transitions and prosperity in China from 210 BC to AD 1910 and analyzed the relationships among dynastic transition or dynastic prosperity, climate change, and grain harvests. From 210 BC to AD 1910, dynastic transitions mostly coincided with cold ages or the periods that changed from warm to cold and dry or wet-to-dry periods when there was relatively poor harvest. In contrast, dynastic prosperity mostly coincided with warm ages or the periods that changed from cold to warm and wet or dry-to-wet periods when there was relatively bumper harvest. Meanwhile, the dynastic transitions from a divisive dynasty to a unified dynasty often came with a progressively warm phase on the century scale when grain harvests increased. Interestingly, the division of a unified dynasty often came with a progressively cold phase and poor harvests. Furthermore, changes in temperature and agricultural production may be one of the most important factors leading to the collapse of Tang Dynasty. In conclusion, the fluctuation of grain harvests and climate change correspond with the transitions between a tumultuous society and an ordered one, which reveals that the social sensitivity periods were often a result of a change to a colder climate on the century scale.

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“…Socioecological systems are processes that constantly interact with one another and continuously advance human systems (Gallopin, 1991; Turner et al ., 2003). Whether the development of human systems is dominated by natural or socioeconomic factors is a challenging topic, and there is no consensus in the available research (Zhang, 1982; Yancheva et al ., 2007a,b; Zhang, 2008; Cheng et al ., 2010; Fan, 2010; Zhang et al ., 2010; Fang et al ., 2013; Zheng et al ., 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

To what extent did changes in temperature affect China's socioeconomic development from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period?

Fang

2020

J Quaternary Science

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Analysing the contribution of climate and non‐climate change factors to social development and the occurrence of historical events represents important research on the impact of climate change. This study identifies combinations of social subsystem indices affected by temperature changes using the conceptual framework of food security, a priori knowledge and logical reasoning to statistically analyse three 10‐year data series (grain harvest grades, famine indices and economic levels) from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period of ancient China (210 bc to 960 ad). The results are as follows. For 94 of the 118 decades in the study period, social development was relatively directly related to temperature effects. On a decadal scale, against a cold background, grain production was closely related to temperature conditions in 40.7% of all decades. Economic prosperity and depressions in 5.1 and 21.2% of these decades, respectively, were directly related to temperature effects. Against a warm background, grain production was closely related to temperature conditions in 39% of all decades. Economic prosperity and depressions in 22 and 8.5% of these decades, respectively, were directly related to the temperature effects. The century and decadal‐scale characteristics were the same. Specifically, when mostly negative combinations of natural–socioeconomic factors dominated, the proportion of decades was slightly higher in cold than in warm periods. This case study enables a scientific understanding of the effect of changes in mean climate values/trends on social development and further demonstrates the different effects of the climate change process and mechanism. Climate cooling and warming may bring more positive than negative impacts in some regions and more negative than positive impacts in others. Complex feedback may amplify or reduce the impact of climate cooling and warming. Climate that evolves unfavourably has an impact more strongly correlated with the socioeconomic system's vulnerability and adaptability. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Yancheva et al. reply

Cited by 10 publications

References 4 publications

Northern Hemisphere Controls on Tropical Southeast African Climate During the Past 60,000 Years

Northern Hemisphere Controls on Tropical Southeast African Climate During the Past 60,000 Years

Correlation between climate and grain harvest fluctuations and the dynastic transitions and prosperity in China over the past two millennia

To what extent did changes in temperature affect China's socioeconomic development from the Western Han Dynasty to the Five Dynasties period?

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