WSR-88D Radar, Tornado Warnings, and Tornado Casualties

Simmons, Kevin M.; Sutter, Daniel

doi:10.1175/waf857.1

Cited by 122 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…In comparison to the nocturnal tornado event percentage, 39.3% of tornado fatalities and 42.1% of killer tornadoes from 1950 to 2005 took place during the night. Results from a two-sample difference of proportion test [Rogerson (2001) Simmons and Sutter (2005a), which indicated that expected fatalities are significantly lower for daytime tornadoes than for those that occur at night.…”

Section: A Temporal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, tornadoes at night are almost twice as likely to kill as those during the daytime. Simmons and Sutter (2005a) used three time of day delineations, including "day," "evening," and "overnight", in their investigations of tornado vulnerabilities. In this study, we examine the vulnerability of similar time periods, but use the specific sunset-sunrise information in our calculations rather than arbitrary temporal designations.…”

Section: A Temporal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In fact, this increase is likely taking place at present considering the fatality total during the most recent 10 yr on record, 1998-2007, is 11.1% higher than the 1978-87 tally and 48.0% higher than the 1988-97 sum. Although purely speculative, it is believed that without the improvements in tornado detection, tech- nology, and warning operations and dissemination [see Doswell et al (1999), Brooks and Doswell (2002), and Simmons and Sutter (2005a) for a discussion of these advances], this increasing trend would likely be more substantial. Simmons andSutter (2007, 2008) have illustrated that tornadoes during the late fall and winter (the socalled off season) are more dangerous, all else being equal, than tornadoes occurring in the late spring and summer.…”

Section: October 2008 a S H L E Y E T A Lmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, tornadoes are difficult to visually identify at night by both the public and trained spotters and, even if a warning is provided, the public is less likely to receive that warning at night due to normal sleeping patterns (Monk et al 2000). In addition, the public has a tendency to be in more vulnerable housing and building structures (e.g., mobile or "manufactured" and singlefamily homes) during the night in comparison to safer locations (e.g., school or place of work in steel or reinforced-concrete buildings) during the day (Simmons and Sutter 2005a;Ashley 2007). Ashley (2007) found that 69.2% of all tornado fatalities from 1985 to 2005 occurred in either mobile or permanent homes, illustrating the enhanced vulnerability of these particular housing structures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using a regression analysis of tornado casualties, Simmons and Sutter (2005a) established that expected casualties are significantly lower for tornadoes occurring during the "day" (between 0600 and 1759 local time) or "evening" (1800 and 2359 LT) than those occurring late at night (0000 and 0559 LT). Utilizing similar time of day delineations, Simmons and Sutter (2008) estimated regression models of tornado casualties employing tornado data from 1986 to 2002.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Vulnerability due to Nocturnal Tornadoes

Ashley

Krmenec

Schwantes

2008

Weather and Forecasting

128

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This study investigates the human vulnerability caused by tornadoes that occurred between sunset and sunrise from 1880 to 2007. Nocturnal tornadoes are theorized to enhance vulnerability because they are difficult to spot and occur when the public tends to be asleep and in weak building structures. Results illustrate that the nocturnal tornado death rate over the past century has not shared the same pace of decline as those events transpiring during the daytime. From 1950 to 2005, a mere 27.3% of tornadoes were nocturnal, yet 39.3% of tornado fatalities and 42.1% of killer tornado events occurred at night. Tornadoes during the overnight period (local midnight to sunrise) are 2.5 times as likely to kill as those occurring during the daytime hours. It is argued that a core reason why the national tornado fatality toll has not continued to decrease in the past few decades is due to the vulnerability to these nocturnal events. This vulnerability is magnified when other factors such as escalating mobile (or "manufactured") home stock and an increasing and spreading population are realized. Unlike other structure types that show no robust demarcation between nocturnal and daytime fatalities, nearly 61% of fatalities in mobile homes take place at night revealing this housing stock's distinct nocturnal tornado vulnerability. Further, spatial analysis illustrates that the American South's high nocturnal tornado risk is an important factor leading to the region's high fatality rate. The investigation emphasizes a potential break in the tornado warning dissemination system utilized currently in the United States.

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Section: A Temporal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A Temporal Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: October 2008 a S H L E Y E T A Lmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Vulnerability due to Nocturnal Tornadoes

Ashley

Krmenec

Schwantes

2008

Weather and Forecasting

128

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Population and energy elasticity of tornado casualties

Fricker

Elsner

Jagger

2017

Geophysical Research Letters

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Tornadoes are capable of catastrophic destruction and mass casualties, but there are yet no estimates of how sensitive the number of casualties are to changes in the number of people in harm's way or to changes in tornado energy. Here the relationship between tornado casualties (deaths and injuries), population, and energy dissipation is quantified using the economic concept of “elasticity.” Records of casualties from individual tornadoes over the period 2007–2015 are fit to a regression model. The coefficient on the population term (population elasticity) indicates that a doubling in population increases the casualty rate by 21% [(17, 24)%, 95% credible interval]. The coefficient on the energy term (energy elasticity) indicates that a doubling in energy dissipation leads to a 33% [(30, 35)%, 95% credible interval] increase in the casualty rate. The difference in elasticity values show that on average, changes in energy dissipation have been relatively more important in explaining tornado casualties than changes in population. Assuming no changes in warning effectiveness or mitigation efforts, these elasticity estimates can be used to project changes in casualties given the known population trends and possible trends in tornado activity.

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Ways to Be Part of the Transformation to Integrated Weather Studies

2017

Weather and Society

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WSR-88D Radar, Tornado Warnings, and Tornado Casualties

Cited by 122 publications

References 12 publications

Vulnerability due to Nocturnal Tornadoes

Vulnerability due to Nocturnal Tornadoes

Population and energy elasticity of tornado casualties

Ways to Be Part of the Transformation to Integrated Weather Studies

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