Wpływ kryzysu gospodarczego na potencjalne członkostwo Polski w trzecim etapie Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej

Abstract

The continuous uncertainty concerning the final consequences of the economic crisis in the Eurozone, as well as the level of recession in Poland, increase the risk of introducing the common currency and giving up the monetary policy instruments. However, the Polish economy and the economy of the Eurozone are so much interrelated that an emergence of a deep recession in the EMU which would be able to sidestep Poland is hardly probable. Hence, the influence of the current economic crisis on the Polish membership in the Eurozone should be analyzed mainly from the point of view of Poland's ability to ful%ll the convergence criteria under the economic slowdown. Such an analysis is the aim of this article. The biggest challenge for Poland is a substantial reduction in the budget deficit. In 2010 the budget deficit in Poland - instead of decreasing (as it was planned in the Polish "Convergence Programme") - continued to increase. Growing budget deficit means an increase in the public debt. Furthermore, the inability to fulfill the fiscal criterion leads to the serious problems concerning the other convergence criteria (that is, the level of nominal interest rates and the stability of the exchange rate). Moreover, under such circumstances it would be dificult for the fiscal policy to play the role of so-called stabilizer if Poland decided to enter ERM II (and such a role would be very helpful regarding the limited autonomy of the monetary policy).