Would information on consumer confidence have helped to predict UK household expenditure during the recent economic crisis?

Gausden, Robert; Hasan, Mohammad S

doi:10.1080/00036846.2015.1105926

Cited by 6 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…The results on the predictability of consumer attitudes toward consumer spending are somewhat mixed. The effect of consumer sentiment on consumption has been analyzed by, among others Carroll et al (1994), Kwan and Cotsomitis (2004), Ludvigson (2004), Easaw et al (2005), Kwan and Cotsomitis (2006), Malgarini and Margani (2007), Celik and Ozerkek (2009), Bruno (2014), Kilic and Cankaya (2016), Gausden and Hasan (2016), Lahiri et al (2016), Juhro and Iyke (2020).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries

Aneta¹,

Górska²

2021

ERSJ

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Indicator and its underlying components for household saving rate in the broad crosscountry settlement. Two questions are addressed in particular. First, do Consumer Confidence Indicator and its components indeed forecast future household propensity to save on their own? Second, do Consumer Confidence Indicator and its components contain any predictive power for household saving beyond economic fundamentals? Design/Methodology/Approach: The regression analysis using panel data for 14 European countries is used. Findings: Our results reveal that Consumer Confidence Indicator and most of its component questions have predictive power for the forecasts of household saving rate in both cases -as distinct predictor and as additional variable to the baseline model. Practical implications: Generally, our results support the recommendations to combine subjective (confidence indexes) and objective (economic fundamentals) indicators to achieve a broader picture and a more reliable basis for forecasts and policy assessments in the area of household finance. The results may be of special interest in terms of profound changes in consumer confidence related to the global pandemic . Originality: This study extends the knowledge in consumer confidencehousehold saving relationship and is the first analysis of consumer confidence forecasting ability for household saving settled in the broad European perspective.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries

Aneta¹,

Górska²

2021

ERSJ

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“…This study departs from this extant work by positing a pivotal (i) direct and/or (ii) intermediary role for subjective individual perception of economic circumstances and sentiment surrounding macroeconomic performance, sometimes also described as 'consumer confidence'. Given the prevalence of this concept in theoretical and empirical analyses in economics (see, for example, Ludvigson, 2004;Barsky et al, 2012;Gausden and Hasan, 2016), finance (see, for example, Fisher and Statman, 2003;Lemmon & Portniaguina, 2006), and psychology (see, for example, Spreng & Page, 2001;Chelminski & Coulter, 2007;Bovi, 2009) it is somewhat surprising that its potential role in exploring variations in suicide rates has not, hitherto, been explicitly explored. If such an intermediary role could be empirically identified, it may well serve as a suitable candidate metric for a Durkheimian transmission mechanism by which actual economic circumstances or crises affect suicide rates.…”

Section: Theoretical Considerations and Key Hypothesesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Suicide, sentiment and crisis

Collins

Cox

Kizys

et al. 2020

The Social Science Journal

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There is an extensive body of empirical work investigating the relationship between the upswings and downswings of the economic cycle and suicide rates. They are emphatically not typically empirically supportive of the prosperity-induced suicide uplift dimension. This lack of clarity pertains to the precise nature of the transmission mechanism by which an economic crisis actually affects suicide. This study posits the hypothesis that this influence broadly translates as emotional reaction, 'gut feelings' and as such explicitly considers the use of subjective factors of economic performance to better explain variations in suicide rates. Alongside traditional economic indicators we use a 'consumer sentiment' measure, a sense of how economic factors are perceived to be impacting on individuals, to explain suicide rates. Furthermore, we explicitly consider the impact of the global financial crisis and test the impact of state public and health expenditures. Results show that consumer sentiment is found to offer a significantly greater explanatory role in exploring variations in the suicide rate compared to traditional economic indicators. Moreover, the effect of consumer sentiment is greater for females than for males, with some nuances in explaining this result. State public and health expenditures do not seem to have any significant influence on suicide rates.

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“…In a recent paper, Gausden and Hasan (2016) proposed a minor modification to the CCI. Reasons were supplied for seeking to deny Q11 a contribution towards the creation of an aggregate measure of consumer sentiment.…”

Section: Question 11mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Inter alia, both Gausden and Hasan (2016) and Lahiri, Monokroussos and Zhao (2016) have identified that information on consumer confidence serves a more productive role in forecasting household spending during an economic downturn. On this basis, perhaps it should not be surprising to find that the data on Italy, compared to those on Germany and the UK, allow a clearer distinction to be drawn between the predictive capabilities of the rival models.…”

Section: Table 2dmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis

Gausden

Hasan

2019

Applied Economics

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Would information on consumer confidence have helped to predict UK household expenditure during the recent economic crisis?

Abstract: The version in the Kent Academic Repository may differ from the final published version. Users are advised to check http://kar.kent.ac.uk for the status of the paper. Users should always cite the published version of record.

Cited by 6 publications

References 10 publications

Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries

Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries

Suicide, sentiment and crisis

Comparative performances of measures of consumer and economic sentiment in forecasting consumption: a multi-country analysis

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