Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate
variation

Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Seimon, Anton; Adrian, Rita; McIntyre, Peter

doi:10.5194/hess-2019-470

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…A recent global review found that background climate variation due to multi-decadal climatic oscillations such as ENSO accounted for 58% of the variation in lake levels; a further 10% variation was due to normal seasonal effects. It was concluded that apparent trends attributed to anthropogenic activities were often exaggerated by this "normal" background variation and that due attention should be given to background climate variation before claiming climate change impacts (Kraemer et al 2020).…”

Section: Climate Change Science Has Helped To Characterize Climate Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Current Climate Variability Can Ensure Water Security Under Climate Change

Müller

2021

African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation

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Water resources will be significantly impacted upon by climate change, and these impacts will be transmitted to the many sectors and services dependent on them. The nature, extent, and timing of these impacts remain uncertain, but the long lifetime of water infrastructures requires that their planning, development, and operations should be resilient to climate changes. An effective approach is to focus on the management of current climate variability as it relates to water, which strengthens the ability of communities and countries to foresee, manage, and adapt to the impacts of longer-term climate change on water-related activities. This approach is illustrated by cases from Southern and Eastern Africa.Current “stationary” stochastic methods of hydrological analysis can still be used under assumptions of a “dynamic stationarity” although more regular updating of hydrological data will be required. Methodologies to evaluate economic dimensions of risk reduction introduce additional uncertainties but may help decision-makers to understand the risks and opportunities. Diversification of sources and sequencing of resource development pathways are helpful strategies to adapt to climate change but must ensure that risks affecting different sources are not correlated. Attention must also be given to demand-side interventions in order to reconcile supply and demand, and these perspectives must be shared with social, economic, and political actors to ensure that strategies are communicated, understood, and supported by the wider community.

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Section: Climate Change Science Has Helped To Characterize Climate Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Managing Current Climate Variability Can Ensure Water Security Under Climate Change

Müller

2021

African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation

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“…Past climate change has already influenced the functioning of Lake Tanganyika. This is visible through a rise water level, in surface-water temperature and an increased stability of the water column, which in turn decreases the mixing of the layers (Kraemer et al, 2019). Historical records already suggest a 30% decrease in fish production due to climate change and its effects (O'Reilly et al, 2003).…”

Section: Fig 1: Location Of Lake Tanganyikamentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Lake Tanganyika's hydrodynamics under a changing climate

Sterckx

Delandmeter

Lambrechts

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Lake Tanganyika is the second oldest (oldest basin of the lake is 9–12 million years old), second deepest (1470 m) lake in the world. It holds 16 % of the world's liquid freshwater. Approximately 100 000 people are directly involved in the fisheries operating from almost 800 sites along its shores. Despite the vital importance of Lake Tanganyika and other African inland waters for local communities, very little is known about the impacts of future climate change on the functioning of these lacustrine systems. This is remarkable, as projected future changes in climate and associated weather conditions are likely to influence the hydrodynamics of African water bodies, with impacts cascading into ecosystem functioning, fish availability and water quality. Here we project the future changes in the hydrodynamics of Lake Tanganyika under a high-end emission scenario using the 3D version of the Second-generation Louvain-la-Neuve Ice-ocean Model (SLIM 3D) forced by a highresolution regional climate model. We first show the added value of 3D simulations compared to previously obtained 1D model results. The simulated interseasonal variability of the lake with this 3D model explains how the current mixing system works. A short-term present-day simulation (10 years) shows that the 75 m deep thermocline moves upward in the south of the lake until the lower layer reaches the lake surface during August and September. Two 30-year simulations have been performed (one with present day and one with future conditions), such that a comparison can be made between the current situation and the situation at the end of the 21st century. The results show that the surface water temperature increases on average by 3 ± 0.5 K. The latter influences the hydrodynamics in the top 150 m of the lake, namely the bottom of the thermocline does not longer surface. This temperature-induced stratification fully shuts down the earlier explained mixing mechanism.

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“…Past climate change has already influenced stratification and the functioning of Lake Tanganyika. Long-term changes reported include a rise in surface water temperature and increased stability of the water column [21]. The enhancement of stratification by atmospheric warming, resulting in reduced vertical mixing, has led to significant changes in the nutrient supply to the epilimnion [20,57,23,59,61].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of seasonal variability and climate change on lake Tanganyika’s hydrodynamics

et al. 2023

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In this paper, we project future changes in the hydrodynamics of Lake Tanganyika under a high emission scenario using the three-dimensional (3D) version of the Second-generation Louvain-la-Neuve Ice-ocean Model (SLIM 3D) forced by a high-resolution regional climate model. We demonstrate the advantages of 3D simulation compared to 1D vertical models. The model captures the seasonal variability in the lake, with seasonal deep mixing and surfacing of the thermocline. In a simulation of current conditions, the thermocline in the south of the lake moves upward from a depth of 75 m until it reaches the lake surface during August and September. We compare the current conditions with an end-of-the-century simulation under a pessimistic emission scenario (RCP 8.5) showing that surface water temperature increases on average by 3 ± 0.5 °C. Because deeper water warms less, the stratification increases in the upper 150 m of the water column. This temperature-induced stratification reduces mixing and prevents the outcropping of the thermocline, eventually shutting down the ventilation of deep water in the south basin. Our results highlight the extreme changes likely faced by Lake Tanganyika if global greenhouse gas emissions are not curbed.

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Worldwide lake level trends and responses to background climate variation

Cited by 5 publications

References 61 publications

Managing Current Climate Variability Can Ensure Water Security Under Climate Change

Managing Current Climate Variability Can Ensure Water Security Under Climate Change

Simulating Lake Tanganyika's hydrodynamics under a changing climate

The impact of seasonal variability and climate change on lake Tanganyika’s hydrodynamics

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