Worldwide Effectiveness of Various Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Control Strategies on the Global COVID-19 Pandemic: A Linearised Control Model

Naude, Jacques; Mellado, B.; Choma, Joshua; Corrêa, Fábio Mathias; Dahbi, S.; Dwolatzky, B.; Dwolatzky, L; Hayasi, Kentaro; Lieberman, Benjamin; Maslo, Caroline; Monnakgotla, Kgomotso; Ruan, X.; Stevenson, Finn

doi:10.1101/2020.04.30.20085316

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The burgeoning literature examines the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) [ 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 ], a state’s capacity to respond to the pandemic [ 10 , 11 , 12 ], or factors affecting compliance with NPIs [ 13 , 14 ]. Studies seem to reach a consensus that lockdown is effective in containing COVID-19, but are only based on single-country studies [ 5 , 8 ] and do not even explain what lockdown means in different countries [ 7 , 15 , 16 ]. Given the variety of scope and measures included in lockdowns in different countries, however, it is crucial to investigate the effect of NPIs in a more detailed way.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and the Implications for Human Rights

Hong

Hwang

Park

2020

IJERPH

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In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments swiftly decided to order nationwide lockdowns based on limited evidence that such extreme measures were effective in containing the epidemic. A growing concern is that governments were given little time to adopt effective and proportional interventions protecting citizens’ lives while observing their freedom and rights. This paper examines the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in containing COVID-19, by conducting a linear regression over 108 countries, and the implication for human rights. The regression results are supported by evidence that shows the change in 10 selected countries’ responding strategies and their effects as the confirmed cases increase. We found that school closures are effective in containing COVID-19 only when they are implemented along with complete contact tracing. Our findings imply that to contain COVID-19 effectively and minimize the risk of human rights abuses, governments should consider implementing prudently designed full contact tracing and school closure policies, among others. Minimizing the risk of human rights abuses should be a principle even when full contact tracing is implemented.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and the Implications for Human Rights

Hong

Hwang

Park

2020

IJERPH

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“…The world average for the coefficient that linearises the level of transmission with respect to the OxCGRT stringency index is α s = 0.01 ±0.0017 (95% C.I.) [21].…”

Section: Non-pharmaceutical Interventions and The Stringency Indexmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating temperature and humidity gradients of COVID-19 infection rates in light of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

Choma¹,

Mellado

Lieberman³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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We evaluate potential temperature and humidity impact on the infection rate of COVID-19 with a data up to June 10th 2020, which comprises a large geographical footprint. It is critical to analyse data from different countries or regions at similar stages of the pandemic in order to avoid picking up false gradients. The degree of severity of NPIs is found to be a good gauge of the stage of the pandemic for individual countries. Data points are classified according to the stringency index of the NPIs in order to ensure that comparisons between countries are made on equal footing. We find that temperature and relative humidity gradients do not significantly deviate from the zero-gradient hypothesis. Upper limits on the absolute value of the gradients are set. The procedure chosen here yields 6·10^−3°C^−1 and 3.3·10^−3(%)^−1 upper limits on the absolute values of the temperature and relative humidity gradients, respectively, with a 95% Confidence Level. These findings do not preclude existence of seasonal effects and are indicative that these are likely to be nuanced.

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“…Jarvis et al [14] varied the post-lockdown contact reduction among young people. Many NPI studies do not mention sensitivity or validation at all [4,20,5,16,19,18,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Robust are the Estimated Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions against COVID-19?

Sharma

Mindermann

Brauner

et al. 2020

Preprint

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There remains much uncertainty about the relative effectiveness of different nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 transmission. Several studies attempt to infer NPI effectiveness with cross-country, data-driven modelling, by linking from NPI implementation dates to the observed timeline of cases and deaths in a country. These models make many assumptions. Previous work sometimes tests the sensitivity to variations in explicit epidemiological model parameters, but rarely analyses the sensitivity to the assumptions that are made by the choice the of model structure (structural sensitivity analysis). Such analysis would ensure that the inferences made are consistent under plausible alternative assumptions. Without it, NPI effectiveness estimates cannot be used to guide policy. We investigate four model structures similar to a recent state-of-the-art Bayesian hierarchical model. We find that the models differ considerably in the robustness of their NPI effectiveness estimates to changes in epidemiological parameters and the data. Considering only the models that have good robustness, we find that results and policy-relevant conclusions are remarkably consistent across the structurally different models. We further investigate the common assumptions that the effect of an NPI is independent of the country, the time, and other active NPIs. We mathematically show how to interpret effectiveness estimates when these assumptions are violated. DisclaimerThis preprint uses the same data as our previous work (Brauner et al. [2]) and references our previous results at multiple places. However, we have recently updated our data: The new data was collected with independent double entry and has slightly different NPIs, slightly different NPI definitions, and a longer window of analysis. We already updated Brauner et al. [2] to use the new data, but the present preprint is still in the process of being updated. In the meantime, the results differ slightly between the two preprints.

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Worldwide Effectiveness of Various Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Control Strategies on the Global COVID-19 Pandemic: A Linearised Control Model

Cited by 10 publications

References 29 publications

Effect of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and the Implications for Human Rights

Effect of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and the Implications for Human Rights

Evaluating temperature and humidity gradients of COVID-19 infection rates in light of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

How Robust are the Estimated Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions against COVID-19?

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