Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2017

Kristensen, Hans M.; Norris, Robert S.

doi:10.1080/00963402.2017.1363995

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…1, India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear forces in 2019 each may contain 140 to 150 warheads, with a possible expansion to 200 to 250 warheads in each country by 2025 ( 1 , 3 – 5 ). Britain (~215), France (~300), China (~270), and Israel (~80) have a similar number of weapons but have been maintaining relatively constant arsenals ( 2 ). Estimates of the numbers of warheads possessed by India and Pakistan are based on the capacity of delivery systems that can be observed from remote sensing, rather than on the amount of enriched uranium and plutonium fuel that the countries may have produced.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…According to Pakistani officials, Pakistan’s weapons are disassembled, and the parts are stored in several separate locations to reduce the possibility that terrorists might capture a usable weapon ( 6 ). Using satellite images, expert studies, and local news reports, Kristensen and Norris ( 2 ) identify nine locations in Pakistan where nuclear weapons may be stored.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 2018 arsenal of India is thought to contain 130 to 140 nuclear warheads, which may expand to 200 by 2025 ( 5 ). Kristensen and Norris ( 2 ) list five locations in India where nuclear weapons may be stored, but they estimate that there are others whose physical locations have not been identified.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

et al. 2019

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Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

et al. 2019

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“…From 1939 countries had uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing (ENR) capabilities, presenting two pathways for acquiring nuclear weapons (Fuhrmann and Tkach 2015). Yet, only nine states currently possess nuclear weapons (Kristensen and Norris 2017), and only one other -South Africasuccessfully built and then abandoned the bomb. Consequently, it is important to have a clear-eyed view of the fuel cycle and the risk factors associated with various levels of civilian nuclear technology development 1 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Nuclear Fuel Cycle and the Proliferation “Danger Zone”

Herzog

2020

Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament

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Horizontal nuclear proliferation presents what is sometimes referred to as the "Nth country problem," or identifying which state could be next to acquire nuclear weapons. Nuclear fuel cycle technologies can contribute to both nuclear power generation and weapons development. Consequently, observers often view civilian nuclear programs with suspicion even as research on nuclear latency and the technological inputs of proliferation has added nuance to these discussions. To contribute to this debate, I put forth a simple theoretical proposition: En route to developing a civilian nuclear infrastructure and mastering the fuel cycle, states pass through a proliferation "danger zone." States with fuel cycle capabilities below a certain threshold will likely be unable to proliferate. States that pass through the "danger zone" without proliferating will be unlikely to do so in the future. I support this proposition by introducing preliminary analysis from the Nuclear Fuel Cycle (NFC) Index, a new heuristic tool to complement political assessments of the connection between civilian nuclear energy development and nuclear weapons proliferation. I conclude with policy implications for contemporary Iran, Saudi Arabia, Japan, and South Korea. Taken together, this article calls for increased policymaker interaction with historical cases and more sophisticated academic engagement with the nuclear fuel cycle.

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“…Thus, only three nuclear bombs could kill over 68 million people. Furthermore, it has been estimated that there is a total of 17,000 nuclear weapons in the world today [9]. If all those bombs were used in a war, those weapons have enough power to kill 374 billion people.…”

Section: B Nuclear Warmentioning

confidence: 99%

Social and Psychological Challenges of the 21st Century and Beyond

Taormina¹

2016

IJSSH

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Abstract-Shakespeare's metaphor "What is past is prologue" is used to trace past changes of the previous century that caused the social and psychological challenges of today. Those changes included inventions that made war more devastating and challenged us to live through technological inventions that completely changed our society. Next, challenges of the present, in the form of changes taking place that are creating personal and social difficulties are similarly examined. These include terrorism, overpopulation, global warming, new diseases, and a war that could destroy Earth's entire population. Some of these may be precursors to challenges of the 21 st Century. Based on these, some forecasts are made regarding a more distant future challenge that could completely alter our view of the world and the universe. Finally, some suggestions are made regarding how to prepare for the social and psychological challenges that we can expect in the future.

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Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2017

Cited by 14 publications

References 9 publications

Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

The Nuclear Fuel Cycle and the Proliferation “Danger Zone”

Social and Psychological Challenges of the 21st Century and Beyond

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