Background: The COVID-19 pandemic notably impacted tuberculosis notification and detection in Brazil. We estimated the number of unnotified tuberculosis cases by group population over the first two years (2020 and 2021) of the pandemic.
Methods: We extracted tuberculosis case notifications from routine national surveillance records and population from Ministry of Health. We estimated trends for case notification during pre-pandemic period (2015 to 2019), stratified by sex, age group, and State with a mixed-effects model. We calculated the unnotified cases during 2020 and 2021 as the difference between expected, and reported values.
Findings: We estimated 11647 (95% uncertain interval [95%UI]: 829,22466) unnotified cases for 2020; and, 6170 (95%UI: -4629,16968) for 2021; amounting 17817 unnotified cases over the two years. Of the estimated expected tuberculosis cases in 2020 and 2021, 11.2% were not notified. Across sex and age, men aged 30-59 years had the highest number of unnotified cases, and men aged 0-14 years had the highest proportion of unnotified cases. Case underreporting was significant for 13 (of the 27 States) in 2020, and for four in 2021.
Interpretation: Tuberculosis cases notification decreased substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. Our analysis helped identify the most affected populations to plan strategies to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on tuberculosis control.