Worklife Expectancies of Railroad Workers Based on the Twenty-Seventh Actuarial Valuation Using Competing Risks/Multiple Decrement Theory and the Markov Railroad Model

Abstract

This paper contains worklife expectancies (WLE) of railroad workers based on the Twenty-Seventh Actuarial Valuation (Bureau of the Actuary, 2018), thereby updating the previous study of railroad workers' WLE based on the Twenty-Fifth Actuarial Valuation (Bureau of the Actuary, 2012). The main results of this paper are shown in a set of tables.11The tables in this paper provide worklife expectancies and standard deviations for every five years of service and five years of age and are referred to as abridged tables. Readers may interpolate as appropriate—e.g., a 23-year-old railroader would have a 60%/40% weighted average between the age 25 and age 20 entries. In addition, a more accurate calculation is available. The Association of American Railroads has requested that we provide it with complete unabridged tables that may be distributed to its members and posted on its web site. We have done so under a contract with the Association of American Railroads, which provides that those unabridged tables may be posted on the Journal of Forensic Economics web site. They appear there as supplemental materials to this paper, along with other supplemental content which includes Excel worksheets and additional statistical characteristics.