Workforce: Forecasting the physician assistant/associate workforce: 2020–2035

Abstract

BackgroundPhysician assistant/associates (PAs) are healthcare professionals whose roles expand universal access across many nations. PAs fill medical provider supply and demand gaps. Our paper reports a forecasting project to predict the likely census of PAs in the medical workforce spanning from 2020 to 2035. Methods Microsimulation modelling of theAmerican PA workforce was performed using the number of clinically active PAs employed in 2020 as the baseline. Graduation rates and PA programme expansion were parameters used to predict annual growth; attrition estimates balanced the equation. Two models, one based on data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and another based on National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants (NCCPA) data were used to estimate future annual PA census numbers. Results Asof 2020, the BLS estimated 125,280 PAs were in the medical workforce; the NCCPA estimate was 148,560 PAs in active practice. The BLS model predicted approximately 204,243 clinically active PAs by 2035; the NCCPA-based model predicted 214,248 PAs in clinical practice. Conclusions A PA predictive model based on four data sources projects that the 2035 census of clinically active PAs to be between 204,000 and 214,000: a growth rate of approximately 35%.

Well-being and the early-career PA

“…A recent study examining retirement intentions of members of the PA workforce predicted that 50% of PAs would exit clinical practice after 30 years and 90% after 35 years. 28 These estimates suggest that the average PA respondent in this study was entering the middle third of their career and could be considered early mid-career.…”

Whither the PA doctorate?

“…17 Based on recent workforce forecasts, by 2025, the United States will have more than 200,000 clinically active PAs, with more than 15,000 newly certifi ed PAs entering the market annually. 18 These data point to a favorable growth of the PA profession. This fi nding is consistent with estimates from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which projects that PA employment will grow 31% from 2020 to 2030, much faster than the average for all occupations.…”

“…As of November 2022, the Accreditation Review Commission on Education for the Physician Assistant (ARC-PA) had accredited 293 PA programs, a number that is likely to grow 17. Based on recent workforce forecasts, by 2025, the United States will have more than 200,000 clinically active PAs, with more than 15,000 newly certified PAs entering the market annually 18. These data point to a favorable growth of the PA profession.…”

Promoting Clinical Training in Substance Use Disorders Within Physician Assistant Programs

“…In 2021, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated a PA workforce of 132,940, 1 with an anticipated increase of 31% by 2030 and growing to more than 204,200 by 2035. 2 In contrast, over 40% of currently practicing physicians will be of retirement age in the next decade with an estimated shortage of between 37,800 and 124,000 physicians by 2034. 3…”