Background
Several widely-used risk scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD)
incorporate sex effects, yet there has been no systematic summary of the
role of sex in clinical prediction models (CPMs). To better understand the
potential of these models to support sex-specific care, we conducted a field
synopsis of sex effects in CPMs for CVD.
Methods and Results
We identified CPMs in the Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative
Effectiveness (PACE) CPM Registry, a comprehensive database of CVD CPMs
published from 1/1990–5/2012. We report the proportion of models
including sex effects on CVD incidence or prognosis, summarize the
directionality of the predictive effects of sex, and explore factors
influencing the inclusion of sex. Of 592 CVD-related CPMs, 193 (33%)
included sex as a predictor or presented sex-stratified models. Sex effects
were included in 78% (53/68) of models predicting incidence of CVD
in a general population, versus only 35% (59/171), 21%
(12/58) and 17% (12/72) of models predicting outcomes in patients
with coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, and heart failure, respectively.
Among sex-including CPMs, women with heart failure were at lower mortality
risk in 8/8 models; women undergoing revascularization for CAD were at
higher mortality risk in 10/12 models. Factors associated with the inclusion
of sex effects included the number of outcome events and using cohorts
at-risk for CVD (rather than with established CVD).
Conclusions
While CPMs hold promise for supporting sex-specific decision making
in CVD clinical care, sex effects are included in only one third of
published CPMs.