WITHDRAWN: Epidemic Big Bang: development and quarantine measures for Covid-19

Abstract

New discrete approximation for the infection spread is constructed based on COVID-19 epidemic data. We consider the epidemic as dependent upon four key parameters: the size of population involved, the mean number of dangerous contacts of one infected person per day, the probability to transmit infection due to such contact and the mean duration of disease. In the simplest case of free epidemic in an infinite population, the number of infected rises exponentially day by day. Here we show the model for epidemic process in a closed population, constrained by isolation, treatment and so on. The four parameters introduced here have the clear sense and are in association with the well-known concept of reproduction number in the continuous susceptible-infected-susceptible model. We derive these parameters from the adequate statistical data. On this basis, we also found the corresponding basic reproduction number mentioned above. Our approach allows evaluating the influence of quarantine measures on free pandemic process. We found a good correspondence of the theory and reliable statistical data. The model is quite flexible and it can be expanded for situations that are more complex.

Epidemic transmission with quarantine measures: application to COVID-19

“…It should be noted that the real epidemic develops under the significant influence of some external limiting factors that are not considered in this paper, but the model, according to its capabilities, allows, if necessary, to take them into account. The present work has been announced recently [24].…”

“…They form the subset of removed people denoted above as R . Wherein, for l > d , the numbers of infected people N I ( l ) (virus carriers) and the total number of infected cases N T ( l ) to the day l can be described by the main system of equations without quarantine measures [23, 24] Therefore, substitution N I from the second equation (6) to the first one leads to the closed equation for N T ( l ) As is easy to show equation (7) not always lead to lim l →∞ N T ( l )/ N → 1. For some parameters equation (7) can contain solutions with N I ( l →∞) = N sat < N .…”