Winter‐to‐winter recurrence and non‐winter‐to‐winter recurrence of SST anomalies in the central North Pacific

Zhao, Xia; Li, Minglu

doi:10.1029/2011jc007845

Cited by 10 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 50 publications

(89 reference statements)

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“…If anomalous atmospheric forcing was to occur repeatedly for several consecutive winters, but not in summer, this would tend to create recurring SSTA in winter. Different from lag autocorrelation analyses in the previous studies, Zhao and Li [2012]investigated interannual variability of the WWR in the central North Pacific. And they indicated that atmospheric circulation anomalies exhibit the WWR phenomenon during WWR years, but do not recur in the following winter during non‐WWR years.…”

Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 57%

“…Furthermore, the results of Zhao and Li [2012]showed that, although the winter‐to‐winter lag autocorrelations of geopotential height anomalies show a tendency to recur from one winter to the next without persisting through the intervening summer, it does not mean that the recurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies in the second winter come from those in the previous winter. Unlike the reemergence mechanism of the SSTA WWR, winter atmospheric anomalies do not persist at a certain layer of atmosphere through the intervening summer, suggesting that the recurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies in the second winter do not come from those in the previous winter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…WWR does not only exist in the SSTA in the North Pacific. Zhao and Li [2010, 2012], from the perspective of mean climatic characteristics and interannual variability, found that the WWR in the central North Pacific is an evolutional characteristic of the whole air‐sea system with the seasons, and the WWR of atmospheric circulation anomalies and its forcing play an important role in the SSTA WWR. Through lag autocorrelation analyses used in the previous studies, Zhao and Li [2010] indicated that, in addition to the SSTA, the atmospheric circulation anomalies also has the WWR in the central North Pacific from the lower layer to the upper layer.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Winter‐to‐winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies in the central North Pacific

Zhao

2012

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] Possible causes of the winter-to-winter recurrence (WWR) of atmospheric circulation anomalies in the central North Pacific (CNP) are investigated in the present study. Results show that tropical ENSO could not lead to the atmospheric WWR in the CNP because the persistence of ENSO itself does not show any recurrence regardless of the starting month. The effect of other external forcing, e.g., sea ice, is also not significant. These results suggest that the dominant source of the atmospheric WWR may come from internal atmospheric dynamics in the North Pacific. The Arctic Oscillation, the dominant pattern of sea level pressure variations north of 20 N, seems not to be the cause of atmospheric WWR in the CNP region. The effect of the local internal atmospheric dynamics on the atmospheric WWR may be more important in the CNP region. The CNP region was in the location of the storm track in the North Pacific. It was found that seasonal variability of storm track anomalies and associated synoptic transient eddy dynamics may be one of the causes for the atmospheric WWR. During the WWR years, transient eddy forcing on the mean flow is strong during the winter but very weak in the intervening summer, which leads to a quick transition of anomalous mean atmospheric circulation around March and the maintenance of the opposite sign anomalies for two to three seasons. But this characteristic of transient eddy forcing does not exist during the non-WWR years.

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Section: Introductioncontrasting

confidence: 57%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Winter‐to‐winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies in the central North Pacific

Zhao

2012

J. Geophys. Res.

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“…It is possible that the midlatitude SST anomaly forced by the Arctic ozone is initially stored beneath the surface and is then reentrained into the mixed layer when it deepens again in the following winter (i.e. winter-to-winter recurrence [12][13][14]), though whether this effect can account for the apparent 20-month lag needs to be investigated. Second, El Niño events are often followed by La Niña events (and vice versa), such that the autocorrelation of the NDJF seasonal mean Niño 3.4 index at a lag of two years is −0.32 over the period 1979/1980 through 2015/2016 in the ERSST v4 dataset [15].…”

Section: How Does Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Affect Enso?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Might stratospheric variability lead to improved predictability of ENSO events?

Garfinkel

2017

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…The size of the winter net surface heat flux variations; if these are large then winter SST variability will be dominated by these, with less re-emergence effects (Zhao and Li, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A simple model of ocean temperature re-emergence and variability

Kowalski

Davey

2015

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

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A B S T R A C TA simple stochastic one-dimensional model of interannual mid-latitude sea surface temperature (SST) variability that can be solved analytically is developed. A novel two-season approach is adopted, with the annual cycle divided into two seasons denoted summer and winter. Within each season the mixed layer depth is constant, and the transition of the mixed layer from summer to winter and vice versa is discontinuous. SST anomalies are forced by random atmospheric heat fluxes, assumed to be constant within each season for simplicity, with linear damping to represent atmospheric feedback. At the start of summer the initial SST anomaly is set equal to that at the end of the previous winter, and at the start of winter the initial temperature anomaly is found by instantaneously mixing the summer mixed layer with the heat stored below in the deeper winter mixed layer, thereby explicitly taking into account the 're-emergence mechanism'. Two simple autoregressive equations for the summer and winter SST anomalies are obtained that can be easily solved. Model parameters include seasonal damping coefficients, mixed layer depths and standard deviations of the atmospheric forcing. Analytic expressions for season-to-season correlation and variability and power spectra are used to explore and illustrate the effects of the parameters quantitatively. Among the results it is found that, with regard to winter-to-winter temperature correlation, the re-emergence pathway is more influential than persistence via the summer mixed layer when the winter layer is more than twice the depth of the summer layer. With regard to winter temperature variability, the effect of a deeper winter mixed layer is to decrease the sensitivity to surface forcing and thus decrease variability, but also to increase persistence via re-emergence and thus increase variance at multidecadal scales.

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Winter‐to‐winter recurrence and non‐winter‐to‐winter recurrence of SST anomalies in the central North Pacific

Cited by 10 publications

References 50 publications

Winter‐to‐winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies in the central North Pacific

Winter‐to‐winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies in the central North Pacific

Might stratospheric variability lead to improved predictability of ENSO events?

A simple model of ocean temperature re-emergence and variability

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