Winter Persistence Barrier of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northern Tropical Atlantic Associated with ENSO

Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Minglu

doi:10.1175/2011jcli3784.1

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 77 publications

(115 reference statements)

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“…The large amplitude of seasonal variations in the predictability limit indicates that a WPB phenomenon may exist in the northern tropical Atlantic, similar to the situation in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean. As expected, SSTA persistence in the tropical northern Atlantic shows a marked decline in winter (Ding and Li, ). Recent studies suggest that climate variability in the tropical Atlantic sector is affected mainly by thermodynamic feedback and the remote influence of ENSO (Chang et al , ).…”

Section: Seasonal Mean Predictability Limit Of Monthly Sstsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…Recent studies suggest that climate variability in the tropical Atlantic sector is affected mainly by thermodynamic feedback and the remote influence of ENSO (Chang et al , ). Our results show that the WPB in the northern tropical Atlantic is due to the influence of ENSO (Ding and Li, ). Affected by remote ENSO forcing, the SSTA in the northern tropical Atlantic tends to be locked to the annual cycle, with ENSO peaking in winter and the SSTA in the northern tropical Atlantic peaking in the following spring.…”

Section: Seasonal Mean Predictability Limit Of Monthly Sstmentioning

confidence: 65%

“…However, it should be noted that the ‘local dynamical analogue’ is searched for from the observational time series for a small local region, for which the small number of spatial degrees of freedom makes it possible to find good local analogues within current libraries of historical atmospheric data which allows an ensemble average (Van den Dool, ). On the basis of atmospheric observational data, the NLLE method has been used to investigate decadal changes in weather predictability (Ding et al , ), the temporal–spatial distribution of the predictability of monthly and seasonal means of climate variables (Li and Ding, ), and the predictability limit of the Madden–Julian oscillation (Ding et al , ; Ding et al , ).…”

Section: Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent (Nlle)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporal–spatial distribution of the predictability limit of monthly sea surface temperature in the global oceans

Ding

2012

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:To examine atmospheric and oceanic predictability based on nonlinear error growth dynamics, the authors introduced recently a new method using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE). In this study, the NLLE method is employed to investigate the temporal-spatial distribution of the limit of sea surface temperature (SST) predictability, based on reanalysis monthly SST data. The results show that the annual mean limit of SST predictability is the greatest in the tropical central-eastern Pacific (>8 months). Relatively high values were also obtained for the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans (5-8 months). In the northern and southern mid-high latitude oceans, the limit of SST predictability is less than 6 months, with a minimum value of only 2-3 months. The limit of SST predictability in different oceanic regions shows significant seasonal variations, related to the persistence barriers that occur during particular seasons. In addition to the well-known spring persistence barrier (SPB) in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, persistence barriers also occur in other ocean areas during seasons other than spring. A winter persistence barrier (WPB) exists in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and the northern tropical Atlantic. In the North Pacific and North Atlantic, a persistence barrier exists around July-September. These seasonal persistence barriers cause a relatively low limit of SST predictability when predictions are made across the season in which the barriers occur. In contrast, when predictions are made initiated from the season with a persistence barrier, the SST errors show rapid initial growth but slow growth in the following seasons, resulting in a relatively high limit in predictability. Analyses also indicate that the possibility of really eliminating the effects of persistence barriers on SST errors by improving ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) or the data assimilation procedure is very low.

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Section: Seasonal Mean Predictability Limit Of Monthly Sstsupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Seasonal Mean Predictability Limit Of Monthly Sstmentioning

confidence: 65%

Section: Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent (Nlle)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporal–spatial distribution of the predictability limit of monthly sea surface temperature in the global oceans

Ding

2012

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The delayed tropical atmospheric response was attributed to the tropical oceans lagged response to ENSO (Kumar and Hoerling 2003). Following the ENSO-related SST signal peaked in the northern winter in the eastern Pacific, the SST anomalies in the Indian-Western Pacific (Hsiung and Newell 1983;Pan and Oort 1983;Lanzante 1996;Lau et al 2005 and references there in) as well as that in the tropical Atlantic (Enfield and Mayer 1997;Huang et al 2002;Ding and Li 2011 and references there in) attain their maximum amplitude 1-2 seasons later. They are remotely forced by ENSO through a series of atmospheric and ocean processes involving the ''atmospheric bridge'' spanning the Pacific and Indian Ocean (Lau and Nath 2003;Klein et al 1999), the anomalous Walker circulation (Saravanan and Chang 2000) and the PNA-like teleconnection pattern (Handoh et al 2006) spanning the Pacific and the tropical Atlantic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Observational evidence of the delayed response of stratospheric polar vortex variability to ENSO SST anomalies

et al. 2011

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The temporal and spatial relationship between ENSO and the extratropical stratospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere is examined. In general, there exists a negative correlation between ENSO and the strength of the polar vortex, but the maximum correlation is found in the next winter season after the mature phase of ENSO event, rather than in the concurrent winter. Specifically, the stratospheric polar vortex tends to be anomalously warmer and weaker in both the concurrent and the next winter season following a warm ENSO event, and vice versa. However, the polar anomalies in the next winter are much stronger and with a deeper vertical structure than that in the concurrent winter. Our analysis also shows that, the delayed stratospheric response to ENSO is characterized with poleward and downward propagation of temperature anomalies, suggesting an ENSO-induced interannual variability of the global mass circulation in the stratosphere. Particularly, in response to the growing of a warm ENSO event, there exist warm temperature and positive isentropic mass anomalies in the midlatitude stratosphere since the preceding summer. The presence of an anomalous wavenumber-1 in the concurrent winter, associated with an anomalous Aleutian high, results in a poleward extension of warm anomalies into the polar region, and thus a weaker stratospheric polar vortex. However, the midlatitude warm temperature and positive isentropic mass anomalies persist throughout the concurrent winter till the end of the next summer. In comparison with the concurrent winter, the strengthening of poleward heat transport by an anomalous wavenumber-2 in the next winter results in a much warmer and weaker polar vortex accompanied with a colder midlatitude stratosphere.

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“…According to Troup (1965), the persistence of the Niño3.4 index can be measured using lagged autocorrelation analysis, which is defined as the correlation of the time series with the time series of a succeeding lag month in a period of given duration (Ding & Li, 2009, 2011). Correlation analysis, linear regression, and composite analysis were also employed in this study.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of the North Pacific Victoria Mode on the Spring Persistence Barrier of ENSO

Shi

Ding

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

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This study focuses on the influence of the North Pacific Victoria mode (VM) on the persistence of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both observational data and outputs from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project show that VM events can enhance the persistence of ENSO SSTAs and reduce the intensity of the spring persistence barrier (SPB) of ENSO SSTAs. The possible reasons for these phenomena are that the SSTAs develop (decay) slowly and do not experience a rapid sign reversal during their decaying phase, indicating a relatively weak ENSO SPB occurs in the spring for strong VM cases. However, during weak VM cases, they transit quickly from positive (negative) SSTAs into negative (positive) SSTAs. The amplitudes of the SSTAs during weak VM cases are relatively greater in the mature phase than those during strong VM cases, resulting in a relatively strong ENSO SPB. Furthermore, VM events can affect the strength of the westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific. The magnitude of the westerly wind anomalies is weaker when a strong ENSO co‐occurs with a strong VM event than when it is associated with a weak VM event. In addition, the subsurface water during the strong VM case transits slowly from positive to negative while that transits relatively fast during weak VM cases, which are consistent with the evolutions of SSTAs. Thus, they together affect the recharge/discharge oscillation process of ENSO, which eventually lead to a strong or a weak ENSO SPB phenomenon occurring in the spring during strong or weak VM cases, respectively. The findings offer a new sight for studying the persistence of ENSO SSTAs.

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Winter Persistence Barrier of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northern Tropical Atlantic Associated with ENSO

Cited by 11 publications

References 77 publications

Temporal–spatial distribution of the predictability limit of monthly sea surface temperature in the global oceans

Temporal–spatial distribution of the predictability limit of monthly sea surface temperature in the global oceans

Observational evidence of the delayed response of stratospheric polar vortex variability to ENSO SST anomalies

Influence of the North Pacific Victoria Mode on the Spring Persistence Barrier of ENSO

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