Winter climate change and the poleward range expansion of a tropical invasive tree (Brazilian pepper—Schinus terebinthifolius)

Abstract

Winter climate change is expected to lead to the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems, where tropical species expand poleward in response to a decrease in the intensity and duration of winter temperature extremes (i.e., freeze events). In the southeastern United States, freezing temperatures control the northern range limits of many invasive nonnative species. Here, we examine the influence of freezing temperatures and winter climate change on the northern range limits of an invasive nonnative tree—Schinus terebinthifolius (Brazilian pepper). Since introduction in the 1800s, Brazilian pepper has invaded ecosystems throughout south and central Florida to become the state's most widespread nonnative plant species. Although Brazilian pepper is sensitive to freezing temperatures, temperature controls on its northern distribution have not been adequately quantified. We used temperature and plant occurrence data to quantify the sensitivity of Brazilian pepper to freezing temperatures. Then, we examined the potential for range expansion under three alternative future climate scenarios (+2°C, +4°C, and +6°C). Our analyses identify a strong nonlinear sigmoidal relationship between minimum temperature and Brazilian pepper presence, with a discrete threshold temperature occurring near −11°C. Our future scenario analyses indicate that, in response to warming winter temperatures, Brazilian pepper is expected to expand northward and transform ecosystems in north Florida and across much of the Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic coasts of the United States. These results underscore the importance of early detection and rapid response efforts to identify and manage the northward invasion of Brazilian pepper in response to climate change. Looking more broadly, our work highlights the need to anticipate and prepare for the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by tropical invasive species.

Temperature thresholds for black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) freeze damage, mortality and recovery in North America: Refining tipping points for range expansion in a warming climate

“…What are the implications of our findings for mangrove range dynamics due to climate change? In response to warming winter temperature extremes (USGCRP, ), mangroves and other tropical organisms are expected to move northward into more temperate biomes in eastern and central North America (Carter et al, ; Cavanaugh et al, ; Osland et al, ; Osland & Feher, ). In combination with temperature projections and models of mangrove propagule dispersal (Van der Stocken, Carroll, Menemenlis, Simard, & Koedam, ; Van der Stocken, Wee, et al, ), establishment (Krauss et al, ), and growth (Berger et al, ), the temperature thresholds identified for A. germinans leaf damage, mortality and biomass recovery can be used to help scientists and natural resource managers better anticipate mangrove range dynamics in a warming world.…”

Climate extreme variables generated using monthly time‐series data improve predicted distributions of plant species

“…Extremes of low temperature (i.e. frost events) can cause dieback (Cavanaugh et al 2014, Matusick et al 2014) and limit the poleward distribution of plants (Cavanaugh et al 2014, 2015, Osland and Feher 2020, Osland et al 2020). Observed declines in frost events have facilitated the expansion of frost sensitive species to cooler climes (Cavanaugh et al 2014) while increases in hot and dry conditions are contributing to plant dieback at regional and global scales (Mitchell et al 2014, Allen et al 2015).…”

High-elevational occurrence of two tick species, Ixodes ricinus and I. trianguliceps, at their northern distribution range

“…During the last decades increasing temperatures have been shown to have an impact on the distribution of species across a wide range of taxonomic groups [ 1 , 2 ]. Depending on the species’ adaptability to a warmer climate and the ability to disperse, species may either (i) increase their distribution range due to conditions becoming more favourable in areas that were previously inhospitable [ 3 , 4 ]; (ii) contract in range as their habitat becomes increasingly unsuitable [ 5 , 6 ]; or (iii) move away from areas that have become unsuitable towards habitats that have become more favourable [ 7 , 8 ]. To date most species appear to expand their natural distribution range, and for the majority of species both a northward [ 9 , 10 ] and an upward [ 11 – 13 ] range expansion seems to be the most common movement pattern.…”