Winning Hearts and Minds in Civil Wars: Governance, Leadership Change, and Support for Violent Groups in Iraq

Abstract

The "hearts and minds" model of combating rebellions holds that civilians are less likely to support violent opposition groups if the government provides public services and security. Building on this model, we argue that a political event that raises popular expectations of future public service and security provision increases support for the government and decreases sympathy for violent opposition groups. To test this argument, we leverage a unique research design opportunity that stems from the unforeseen announcement of the resignation of Iraq's divisive prime minister in August 2014 while an original survey was being administered across the country. We show that the leadership transition led Iraq's displeased Sunni Arab minority to shift support from the violent opposition to the government. In line with our argument, this realignment was due to rising optimism among Sunni Arabs that the new government would provide services and public goods-specifically security, electricity, and jobs.

Losing on the Home Front? Battlefield Casualties, Media, and Public Support for Foreign Interventions

“…Taking advantage of the staggered timing of survey enumeration, we identify combat events involving casualties of a troop-sending nation around the interview date specific to each individual respondent and specific to the nationality of the respondent. This design follows recent innovations in the study of domestic politics of international issues, including Mikulaschek, Pant and Tesfaye (2020) and Solodoch (2021). Consistent with the theoretical argument, we document that own-country casualties are associated with a worsening of the support for continued military intervention, while non-combat troop deaths have no discernible impact on support.…”

Localization of the counterinsurgency in Sinai: A case study on integrating local population into counterinsurgency combat operations in Sinai

“…Using the example of the Sunni minority in Iraq, Mikulaschek (2020) and his colleagues argue that the strategy of winning hearts and minds succeeded among the Sunni minority in 2014 after the government won the local population's confidence, especially in its ability to provide public services and security. Here, the Sunni minority's support for the jihadist rebels was significantly diminished, and the population's support shifted to the government (Mikulaschek et al, 2020, p. 78).…”

The Paradox of the Heavy-Handed Insurgent: Public Support for the Taliban Among Afghan Pashtuns

“…13 Mikulashek, Pant, and Tesfaye found that the expectation that the incoming Iraqi government would provide security to be an important factor in rising support for the government and declining support for insurgents. 14 Böhnke, Koehler, and Zürcher found in a longitudinal study in Afghanistan running from 2007-2015, that the provision of security was a key condition in non-combatants decision to attach their loyalty to the state. 15 Beth,Christia,and Enikolopov demonstrated in a study of the factors that drove support for the Afghan government that providing security to the population was a precondition for attracting support from the population.…”