Windowed ETAS models with application to the Chilean seismic catalogs

Nicolis, Orietta; Chiodi, Marcello; Adelfio, Giada

doi:10.1016/j.spasta.2015.05.006

Cited by 18 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Some more graphical diagnostic outputs and residual analysis tools are provided by the plot method, as described in Adelfio and Chiodi (2015b), and used also in Nicolis, Chiodi, and Adelfio (2015).…”

Section: The Output: Text and Graphical Outputmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mixed Non-Parametric and Parametric Estimation Techniques in R Package etasFLP for Earthquakes' Description

Chiodi¹,

Adelfio²

2017

J. Stat. Soft.

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AbstractetasFLP is an R package which fits an epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to an earthquake catalog; non-parametric background seismicity can be estimated through a forward predictive likelihood approach, while parametric components of triggered seismicity are estimated through maximum likelihood; estimation steps are alternated until convergence is obtained and for each event the probability of being a background event is estimated. The package includes options which allow its wide use. Methods for plot, summary and profile are defined for the main output class object. The paper provides examples of the package's use with description of the underlying R and Fortran routines.

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Section: The Output: Text and Graphical Outputmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mixed Non-Parametric and Parametric Estimation Techniques in R Package etasFLP for Earthquakes' Description

Chiodi¹,

Adelfio²

2017

J. Stat. Soft.

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“…As described in reference [1], Chilean seismicity can vary substantially from place to place, showing various clustering zones. Fault zone heterogeneity and complexity are often responsible for spatial and temporal variations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…Recently, ETAS has been used by a number of researchers for the development of both shortand long-term forecasting models [5][6][7][8][9][10]. Moreover, few works study the seismicity in Chile: nowadays the ETAS model has been applied to the Chilean catalog only by Nicolis et al [1]. In this work, we use the ETAS model based on the forward likelihood for prediction (FLP) estimation proposed by Adelfio and Chiodi [11,12] for predicting the spatial and temporal seismicity in Chile.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Space-Time Forecasting of Seismic Events in Chile

Nicolis¹,

Chiodi²,

Adelfio³

2017

Earthquakes - Tectonics, Hazard and Risk Mitigation

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The aim of this work is to study the seismicity in Chile using the ETAS (epidemic type aftershock sequences) space-time approach. The proposed ETAS model is estimated using a semi-parametric technique taking into account the parametric and nonparametric components corresponding to the triggered and background seismicity, respectively. The model is then used to predict the temporal and spatial intensity of events for some areas of Chile where recent large earthquakes (with magnitude greater than 8.0 M) occurred.

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“…Extreme value distributions have been used in seismology as it is assumed that the distribution of earthquake magnitudes follows the Gutenberg-Richter law [41], which is equivalent to the two-parameter exponential (EXP) distribution. The generalized Pareto (GP) distribution extends the EXP distribution, and hence the GP distribution allows an improved modelling of these magnitudes [45].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

L-moments of the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution and its extreme value version: estimation, goodness of fit and application to earthquake data

Lillo

Leiva

Nicolis

et al. 2016

Journal of Applied Statistics

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Understanding patterns in the frequency of extreme natural events, such as earthquakes, is important as it helps in the prediction of their future occurrence and hence provides better civil protection. Distributions describing these events are known to be heavy tailed and positive skew making standard distributions unsuitable for such a situation. The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution and its extreme value version have been widely studied and applied due to their attractive properties. We derive L-moment equations for these distributions and propose novel methods for parameter estimation, goodness-of-fit assessment and model selection. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the L-moment estimators, which is compared to that of the maximum likelihood estimators, demonstrating the superiority of the proposed methods. To illustrate these methods in a practical application, a data analysis of real-world earthquake magnitudes, obtained from the global centroid moment tensor catalogue during 1962-2015, is carried out. This application identifies the extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders distribution as a better model than classic extreme value distributions for describing seismic events.

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Windowed ETAS models with application to the Chilean seismic catalogs

Cited by 18 publications

References 15 publications

Mixed Non-Parametric and Parametric Estimation Techniques in R Package etasFLP for Earthquakes' Description

Mixed Non-Parametric and Parametric Estimation Techniques in R Package etasFLP for Earthquakes' Description

Space-Time Forecasting of Seismic Events in Chile

L-moments of the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution and its extreme value version: estimation, goodness of fit and application to earthquake data

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