Wind speed trends over the contiguous USA

Pryor, Sara C.; Barthelmie, R.J.; Takle, Gene

doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/9/092023

Cited by 21 publications

(27 citation statements)

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“…Wind speeds in the midlatitudes exhibit a high degree of both inter‐annual and intraannual variability [ Bärring and Fortuniak , 2009; Weisse and von Storch , 2010; Pryor and Ledolter , 2010]. Thus, the inter‐annual and intraannual variability of mean wind speeds for the contemporary climate in each of the six regions shown inFigure 2is also presented for the NARR data set and each of the NCEP‐RCM and AOGCM‐RCM couplings for 1979–2000.…”

Section: Data and Methods Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future wind climates over the contiguous USA based on the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program model suite

2012

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[1] Multiple descriptors of wind climates over the contiguous USA from a suite of thirteen simulations conducted with five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) nested within reanalysis data and four Global Climate Models are evaluated relative to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and independent observations. Application of the RCMs improves 'forecasts' of wind climates during 1979-2000 relative to the driving reanalysis, and the RCMs exhibit some skill in depicting historical wind regimes. However, the relative paucity of reference data sets for wind climates represents a significant challenge to evaluation of the modeled wind climates. Simulation of intense and extreme wind speeds by the RCMs are, to some degree, independent of the lateral boundary conditions, and instead exhibit greater dependence on the RCM architecture. RCMs that do not employ a hydrostatic formulation have higher skill in manifesting the macro-scale variability of extreme (20 and 50 year return period) wind speeds even when the RCM are applied at the spatial resolution of 50 km. Output from RCM simulations conducted for the middle of the current century (2041-2062) indicate some evidence of lower intense wind speeds particularly in the western U.S., but no difference in extreme wind speeds, relative to 1979-2000.

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Section: Data and Methods Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and future wind climates over the contiguous USA based on the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program model suite

2012

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“…Additional sources of uncertainty that could be addressed in future work include: (a) The dependence of differences between the two WT parameterizations on the simulated wind regime. The study domain exhibits pronounced inter-annual variability in wind speeds in part due to major climate modes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation [20,21]. (b) The sensitivity of results to the precise description of WT wakes in the two parameterizations (e.g.…”

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confidence: 99%

Downstream effects from contemporary wind turbine deployments

Pryor

Barthelmie

Hahmann

et al. 2018

J. Phys.: Conf. Ser.

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The Long distance wake behind Horns Rev I studied using large eddy simulations and a wind turbine parameterization in WRF O Eriksson, M Baltscheffsky, S-P Breton et al. Resulting analyses indicate that for both WT parameterizations impacts on temperature, specific humidity, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes from current wind turbine deployments are statistically significant only in summer, are of very small magnitude, and are highly localized. It is also shown that use of the relatively recently developed new explicit wake parameterization (EWP) results in faster recovery of full array wakes. This in turn leads to smaller climate impacts and reduced array-array interactions, which at a systemwide scale lead to higher summertime capacity factors (2-6% higher) than those from the more commonly applied 'Fitch' parameterization. Our research implies that further expansion of wind turbine deployments can likely be realized without causing substantial downstream impacts on weather and climate, or array-array interactions of a magnitude that would yield substantial decreases in capacity factors.

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“…The power curve for a given turbine describes the relationship between hub-height wind speed and electrical power produced and typically shows a tilted "S" shape-with zero electrical power below "cut-in" wind speeds (typically approximately 4 m s −1 ), rapidly increasing to the rated power at wind speeds approximately 15 m s −1 , and then electrical power output remains constant until the "cut-out" wind speed (typically approximately 25 m s −1 ). Because hubheight wind speeds above 25 m s −1 are uncommon in most locations where wind turbines are deployed, power production from wind turbines is dominated by the upper percentiles of the wind speed probability distribution (8 (9,10). These internal climate modes may manifest as decadal (or longer) temporal trends in storm and wind climates, which could erroneously be interpreted as being associated with anthropogenic forcing of climate in the absence of detailed, robust, long-term wind speed records (11).…”

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confidence: 99%

Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States

Pryor

Barthelmie

2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

137

124

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The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the "fuel" is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades.uncertainty | wind energy density | internal climate variability | model evaluation | temporal trends T he energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions and hence has been a focus for climate change mitigation efforts (1). Accordingly, renewable energy resources, including wind power, are being increasingly harnessed to provide virtually greenhouse gas emission-free sources of electricity. The global wind energy resource greatly exceeds current total global energy demand (2). Accordingly, a total of 47 GW of new wind energy electricity generation capacity was added worldwide during 2007 and 2008 (3), which accounted for over 10% of all new power generation capacity. New wind projects installed in the United States over the last five years have more than doubled wind-derived electricity generation capacity (2) to over 40 GW by the end of 2010 (4). Further expansion of the generation capacity is expected, and the 2008 US Department of Energy report 20% Wind by 2030 (5) proposes that by 2030, 20% of US electricity supply could derive from wind turbines.The wind energy resource is dictated by the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. If there are substantial changes in the near-surface atmospheric flow and storm climates in a greenhouse-gas-warmed world, wind energy, or at least the spatial manifestations thereof, may be affected. Changes in measured near-surface (typically approximately 10 m agl) wind speeds over the last 30 years have been reported (e.g., 6, 7). However, assessing causality for these trends has proved difficult. Key challenges to understanding how climate nonstationarity has, or may, influence the spatial and temporal distribution of near-surface winds and the wind energy resource include:i. ...

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Wind speed trends over the contiguous USA

Cited by 21 publications

References 0 publications

Past and future wind climates over the contiguous USA based on the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program model suite

Past and future wind climates over the contiguous USA based on the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program model suite

Downstream effects from contemporary wind turbine deployments

Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States

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