Wind generation’s contribution to supporting peak electricity demand – meteorological insights

Abstract

Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. 1 ABSTRACT Wind generation's contribution to meeting extreme peaks in electricity demand is a key concern for the integration of wind power. In Great Britain (GB), robustly assessing this contribution directly from power system data (i.e., metered wind-supply and electricity demand) is difficult as extreme peaks occur infrequently (by definition) and measurement records are both short and inhomogeneous.Atmospheric circulation-typing combined with meteorological reanalysis data is proposed as a means to address some of these difficulties, motivated by a case study of the extreme peak demand events in January 2010. A preliminary investigation of the physical and statistical properties of these circulation types suggests that they can be used to identify the conditions that are most likely to be associated with extreme peak demand events.Three broad cases are highlighted as requiring further investigation. The "High-overBritain" anticyclone, is found to be generally associated with very low winds but relatively moderate temperatures (and therefore moderate peak demands, somewhat in contrast to the classic "low-wind cold-snap" that is sometimes apparent in the literature). In contrast, both longitudinally-extended blocking over Scotland/Scandinavia and latitudinally-extended troughs over western Europe appear to be more closely linked to the very cold GB temperatures (usually associated with extreme peak demands). In both of these latter situations, wind-resource averaged across GB appears to be more moderate.1

A weather regime characterisation of Irish wind generation and electricity demand in winters 2009–11

“…A typically high-demand/low-wind winter in Ireland shows higher frequencies of Greenland and Atlantic blocking regimes. This is consistent with the findings of previous studies (Brayshaw et al 2011b, Grams et al 2017, Thornton et al 2017. Relating the findings to teleconnection patterns, the Greenland Blocking regime strongly resembles an NAO negative state, whilst a positive EA resembles the Atlantic Blocking regime.…”

“…This combination could have resulted in strain on the electricity supply system but Leahy and Foley (2012) conclude that, in fact, the impact on electricity demand in Ireland was lower than expected due to coincidental holidays and a period of economic recession. Brayshaw et al (2011a) found that during a very cold and calm spell in January 2010, very low aggregate wind generation for the whole of GB (dominated by Scottish wind farms) coincided with high demand for electricity. The cold spells of the following winter of 2010-2011 (10-11) were actually more severe in terms of persistent low air temperatures.…”

“…Very cold winter temperatures accompanied by low wind speeds are often attributed to persistent high pressure systems over the British Isles, described as a 'low wind cold snap' and discussed in Gross et al (2006). Brayshaw et al (2011a) argue that, although the 'high-over-Britain' situation typically leads to low wind speeds, such conditions are only 'moderately susceptible' to very low temperatures, and that many of the peak demands over the last 20-30 years have occurred as a result of a persistent high pressure system lying to the north of the British Isles or over Scandinavia. Thornton et al (2017) identified that for the UK, the highest daily demand levels are related to 'the building of a high pressure to the north of GB', but that during these periods, average wind power capacity factors are not at their lowest.…”

Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: A 33 year case study in Great Britain

“…In future, we hope to link this research with reanalysis-based estimates of electricity demand (as outlined in Ref. [33]), thus enabling a more thorough investigation of the above power system impacts.…”

The changing sensitivity of power systems to meteorological drivers: a case study of Great Britain

“…On daily to weekly timescales GB wind power capacity has been related to synoptic scale (approximately 1000 km) weather events termed regimes, with zonal (west-east) regimes resulting in highest aggregate wind power generation, and blocked regimes resulting in lowest aggregate wind power generation [14,15]. There is general consensus in the literature that GB peak demand is associated with an area of high pressure in the vicinity of GB, consistent with low temperatures over GB [14,[16][17][18]. These previous studies of climate-energy interactions are, however, typically limited in two key respects.…”