Wind Energy Resource Assessment for Cook Islands With Accurate Estimation of Weibull Parameters Using Frequentist and Bayesian Methods

Singh, Krishneel A.; Khan, Mohammad G.M.; Ahmed, M. Rafiuddin

doi:10.1109/access.2022.3156933

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…In summary, two worst-case scenarios have been constructed based on the modified bootstrap technique. Unlike previous studies [9] - [12], the modified bootstrap technique does not need to assume the PDF of prediction errors.…”

Section: B Worst-case Scenario Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In contrast, the ensemble Gaussian model, traditional bootstrap technique, and modified bootstrap technique need point prediction values to estimate prediction errors. Then, worst-case scenarios are constructed by combining point prediction values and prediction errors at different CLs, as represented in ( 9)- (12).…”

Section: E Comparative Analysis Of Economy and Safetymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The prediction errors of wind power are assumed to obey the Laplace distribution in [10], and the Latin hypercube sampling algorithm is utilized to produce possible scenarios. To describe the variation of wind speed, the Rayleigh distribution and Weibull distribution are integrated in [11] and [12]. Similarly, the Beta distribution is employed to capture the uncertainty of the photovoltaic (PV) output power, and then the Monte Carlo method is used to sample possible errors in [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Robust Reactive Power Scheduling of Distribution Networks Based on Modified Bootstrap Technique

Liao,

Wang,

Bak-Jensen

et al. 2024

Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

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The uncertainties of the power load, wind power, and photovoltaic power lead to errors between point prediction values and real values, which challenges the safe operation of distribution networks. In this paper, a robust reactive power scheduling (RRPS) model based on a modified bootstrap technique is proposed to consider the uncertainties of power loads and renewable energy sources. Firstly, a deterministic reactive power scheduling (DRPS) model and an RRPS model are formulated. Secondly, a modified bootstrap technique is proposed to estimate prediction errors of power loads and renewable energy sources without artificially assuming the probability density function of prediction errors. To represent all possible scenarios, point prediction values and prediction errors are combined to construct two worst-case scenarios in the RRPS model. Finally, the RRPS model is solved to find a scheduling scheme, which ensures the security of distribution networks for all possible scenarios in theory. Simulation results show that the worstcase scenarios constructed by the modified bootstrap technique outperform popular baselines. Besides, the RRPS model based on the modified bootstrap technique balances economics and security well.

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Section: B Worst-case Scenario Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: E Comparative Analysis Of Economy and Safetymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Robust Reactive Power Scheduling of Distribution Networks Based on Modified Bootstrap Technique

Liao,

Wang,

Bak-Jensen

et al. 2024

Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In this study, economic analysis is performed for all sites, but only the turbine which gives the highest capacity factor is considered. The present value of costs can be calculated using the formula, [39];…”

Section: Economic Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind Energy Resource Potential Evaluation based on Statistical Distribution Models at Four Selected Locations in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Jember

Hailu

Kassie

et al. 2023

JERA

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In Ethiopia, and particularly in the Amhara region, the government as well as the concerned organization would not give special attention to establishing wind energy plants. Lack of scientific research inputs about potential assessment can be one of the reasons behind it. In this paper, a wind energy potential assessment for Debel, Malawa, Enwari, and Ayba Eyesus sites in the Amhara region has been investigated. Five statistical distribution methods namely Weibull 3P, Weibull 2P, Rayleigh 2P, Normal, and Lognormal are used to fit the data to the probability density function and cumulative distribution function. The proposed parameter estimation method, to precisely predict the values of the shape parameter, scale parameter, and location parameter, was the Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method (MLE). To analyze the goodness of fit of the models, Kolmogorov, Andersen Darling, and Chi-Square have been used. The test indicated that Weibull 3P is the best fitting method, except for Ayba Eyesus, which is suited to Weibull 2P. For Debel, Malawa, Enwari, and Ayba Eyesus, the maximum annual average wind power density was found to be 74.291 W/m2, 19.183 W/m2, 68.972 W/m2, and 49.221 W/m2 correspondingly. The evaluations show that VENSYS 87 turbine model has better performance in all three sites except Enwari, where Inox Wind DF 100 is favored. With their best performance turbine, the capacity factor of the sites is determined as 14%, 7%, 12%, and 14% for Debel, Malawa, Enwari, and Ayba Eyesus respectively. Furthermore, Economical analysis by initial cost, lifetime, operation, and maintenance cost, has been carried out to estimate the cost of energy. With VENSYS 87 turbine model, the three sites' present value costs are $5,479,586, while it costs $7,306,115 in Enwari with Inox Wind DF 100 turbine. The cost of electricity per kWh is estimated to be $0.00231, $0.00455, $0.00391, and $0.00312 for Debel, Malawa, Enwari, and Ayba Eyesus respectively, and it is significantly lower than the cost from Ethiopian electric utility (EEU), which is around 0.009$/kwh. Access to electricity in Ethiopia was reported at 45% in 2019. This indicates there is a shortage of energy in the country. This kind of study can help authorities and policymakers in taking into account wind power to mitigate energy poverty in the country.

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Empirical research on technical efficiency of wind power industry in China based on SFA method

Zhang

Wang

Gao

2023

Environ Dev Sustain

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Wind Energy Resource Assessment for Cook Islands With Accurate Estimation of Weibull Parameters Using Frequentist and Bayesian Methods

Abstract: Funds for carrying out this work were provided by Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) under its East-Asia Climate Partnership program. The project number was 2009-00042.

Cited by 9 publications

References 43 publications

Robust Reactive Power Scheduling of Distribution Networks Based on Modified Bootstrap Technique

Robust Reactive Power Scheduling of Distribution Networks Based on Modified Bootstrap Technique

Wind Energy Resource Potential Evaluation based on Statistical Distribution Models at Four Selected Locations in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Empirical research on technical efficiency of wind power industry in China based on SFA method

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