Wind and wave storms, storm surges and sea level rise along the Estonian coast of the Baltic Sea

Abstract

Winter changes in atmospheric circulation above Northern Europe are among the most prominent regional manifestations of global climate change. Particularly vulnerable are the coastal regions along the so-called North Atlantic storm track, along which these changes threaten shipping, infrastructure and human lives. The aim of this paper is to present an overview of storm climatology over the Baltic Sea and to investigate the effects of changes in wind climate on the hydrodynamic regime in the almost tideless fetch-limited nearshore region of West Estonia. The paper presents a statistical analysis of sea level data from tide gauges during 1899-2008, an analysis of wind data from coastal stations during 1966-2007, and a corresponding wave hindcast study. The results show a positive trend both in local storminess and storm surge height. Although both average wind speed and average wave heights showed a slight decrease in the area during 1966-2007, the occurrence of rough sea states has increased. Some of the prominent windstorms also caused major wave storms and storm surges (in 1967, 1969, 2005), depending on cyclone track, coastline configuration and angular distribution of fetches.

Wave climate and coastal processes in the Osmussaar–Neugrund region, Baltic Sea

“…The most rapid changes in Osmussaar have occurred either during exceptionally strong storms or in periods of increased cyclonic and wave activity, the last high phase of which occurred in 1980s-1990s (Fig. 5) [3,15]. Map analyses indicate that the processes were twice as rapid during 1982-1998 than in other periods (Figs.…”

“…However, the share of erosion never exceeded a third of the total changes during the analysed periods. Due to sea level rise and increased storminess [11,14,15], very few sandy beaches in the world are still accumulative, and we can conclude that exposure to the prevailing storm winds allows the sandy shores in Keibu Bay to belong among those few accumulation dominated shores.…”

“…Ordinary waves and sea level variations during occasional (up to 2-3 m) storm surges (e.g. in 1967,2001,2005) are evidently the main hydrodynamic factors for the coastal changes in the almost tideless Estonian coastal sea [14,15]. The site was covered by ice during 40 days in February and March -a rare event in the mild winters of the last decades [16].…”

Recent Change—Sea Level and Wind Waves

“…Tide gauge operation, and the processing, distribution and archiving of the data are the responsibility of a single national agency per country, for instance the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrographical Institute (SMHI), the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), the Estonian Meteorological and Hydrographical Institute (EMHI), the Finnish Barbosa et al (2008) Baltic Sea basin wide Omstedt and Nyberg (1991), Heyen et al (1996), Carlsson (1997Carlsson ( , 1998aCarlsson ( , 1998b, Liebsch (1997), Janssen (2002), Baerens et al (2003), Meier et al (2004), Novotny et al (2006), Hünicke and Zorita (2006, 2007, 2008, Barbosa (2008), , Ekman (2009) and references therein; Hünicke (2010), Donner et al (2012) Southern Baltic Sea coast Richter et al (2007Richter et al ( , 2011 Lithuania Dailidienė et al (2004Dailidienė et al ( , 2005Dailidienė et al ( , 2006Dailidienė et al ( , 2011Dailidienė et al ( , 2012, Jarmalavicius et al (2007) Russia Bogdanov et al (2000), Averkiev and Klevannyy (2010), Navrotskaya and Chubarenko (2012) Estonia Suursaar et al (2002Suursaar et al ( , 2006aSuursaar et al ( , 2010, Kullas (2006, 2009b), Suursaar and Sooäär (2007), Suursaar (2010), Tõnisson et al (2011) Poland Zawadzka (2005, 2008), Richter et al (2007…”

“…Global, including Baltic Sea (observations from ships) No Gulev et al (2003) 1970No Gulev et al (2005 Danish waters (Drogden, multiple locations of lightships) 1931-1994-Sparre (1982 Swedish waters (multiple locations and lightships) 1965-1972No Wahl (1974 Lithuanian waters ( 1978-1996No Blomgren et al (2001 Entrance to Warnemünde harbour 1956-1993(single storms) 1988-1993No Gayer et al (1995 Pomeranian Bay No Paplińska (1999 Suursaar (2010Suursaar ( , 2013, Suursaar et al (2010Suursaar et al ( , 2012 …”