Will U.S. Forests Continue to Be a Carbon Sink?

Abstract

This paper develops structural dynamic methods to project future carbon fluxes in forests. These methods account for land management changes on both the intensive and extensive margins, both of which are critical components of future carbon fluxes. When implemented, the model suggests that U.S. forests remain a carbon sink through most of the coming century, sequestering 128 Tg C y −1 . Constraining forestland to its current boundaries and constraining management to current levels reduce average sequestration by 25 to 28 Tg C y −1 . An increase in demand leads to increased management and greater sequestration in forests. The results are robust to climate change. (JEL Q23, Q54)

Economic Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential in the US Forest Sector

“…The baseline trajectory moves from relatively flat to slightly increasing over time, reflecting a fairly stable carbon flux in the United States. Tian et al provide a more detailed discussion of these baseline results, 5 but for purposes of this brief, we focus on comparing differences between the baseline and various mitigation scenarios. The difference in net sequestration between these policy-specific flux projections and the baseline flux reflects net mitigation potential.…”

“…Tian et al provide an overview of this framework and the importance of intertemporal dynamics and other key attributes of GTM (e.g., endogenous forest management and representation of forest markets) for projecting GHG emissions. 5 This study applies the modeling framework in Tian et al to evaluate mitigation potential from the US forest sector under assumed GHG price incentives. We evaluate how strong mitigation price incentives can shift the nation's management profiles and land use to result in an increased carbon sink.…”

Comment on ‘Does replacing coal with wood lower CO 2 emissions? Dynamic lifecycle analysis of wood bioenergy’

“…It prevents repeated rotations of young, fast-growing forests which provide continued displacement of cement and steel used in buildings as well as fossil fuel for energy. As noted by Tian et al (2018), intensification of forest management provides long-term carbon stock benefits.…”

“…In addition, lack of market response in the model contributes to unrealistically long payback periods. In the area studied by Sterman et al growing markets for wood reduce deforestation and can be expected to stimulate investment in afforestation and improved forest management (Tian et al 2018). These responses mitigate, rather than aggravate, warming.…”

Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector

“…Income levels are expected to rise (Dellink et al, 2016), as is population to at least 2050 (KC and Lutz, 2017), leading to increased competition for land use from agriculture (Bodirsky et al, 2015). Rising income levels and demand for forest products and other forest ecosystem services can drive investment in forest resources, resulting in greater terrestrial carbon storage (Tian et al, 2018). At the same time, higher levels of income and population could also place additional pressure on land remaining as forest to be more productive and/or be harvested, which could have an ambiguous effect on total carbon storage.…”